WTI crude oil is trending higher inside an ascending channel on its 1-hour chart and has just bounced off the bottom. Applying the Fib extension tool on this move shows the next potential upside targets.
The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the uptrend is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. However, the gap between the moving averages has narrowed to reflect slowing bullish momentum and a possible bearish crossover.
For now, price seems to be finding support at the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point but is trading below the 100 SMA dynamic resistance. RSI is on the move up and has some room to climb before indicating overbought conditions. This suggests that bulls could stay in control.
On the other hand, stochastic already made it to the overbought zone and is turning lower to reflect a return in selling pressure. This could spur another test of support or perhaps a break lower. If that happens, crude oil could reverse its earlier uptrend.
If bullish pressure stays on, price could head up to the first target at the 38.2% level near the mid-channel area of interest. Sustained bullish momentum could carry it up to the 50% extension at $55 per barrel or the 61.8% level near the swing high. The 78.6% extension is at the channel top of $56.30 per barrel and the full extension is at $57.25 per barrel.
Crude oil is drawing support from signs of strong demand for distillate products and tightening global crude supply. US data revealed that local inventories grew by by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 1 versus analysts’ expectations at 2.2 million barrels.
This is keeping oversupply concerns in check, against the backdrop of the OPEC output deal and US sanctions on Venezuela’s exports.