Natural gas is testing the lower end of its recent trading range after a sharp selloff knocked price back down from resistance near $2.814.

The commodity had been grinding higher through the first half of the month, but the rally stalled just below that ceiling and gave way to a steep drop that erased more than a week’s worth of gains in just a few sessions.

Price is now hovering around $2.660, not far from the range floor at $2.622, which lines up closely with the swing low set back in early August. A test of this support could still trigger a bounce, especially if buyers step in to defend the same floor that held before.

On the other hand, a clean break below $2.622 could confirm a range breakdown and set up a measured move selloff, with the range height of roughly $0.19 projected lower to suggest a potential slide toward the $2.430 area.

The 100 SMA had crossed above the 200 SMA earlier this month, hinting that the path of least resistance had shifted higher, but the recent plunge dragged price back beneath both moving averages, casting doubt on that bullish crossover and possibly setting the stage for a bearish cross if the selloff persists.

Stochastic has already plunged into oversold territory, reflecting the intensity of the recent selling, which could mean sellers are due for a breather. RSI is also sliding sharply and nearing oversold levels of its own, leaving some room before a bounce might be triggered by exhaustion among bears.

Natural gas could take cues from inventory levels and weather forecasts, though dollar strength appears to be the dominant theme while geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. At the same time, expectations for the FOMC meeting minutes release midweek could also be supporting hawkish Fed hopes, adding another tailwind for USD.