USDX (USD Index)
U.S dollar index closed between 93.00 – 94.00 area in the previous week which suggest the market using cautious approach ahead of The Fed interest-rate decision. There is no direction settled yet for the index. At the end of the week, there was the G7 meeting which ends heated as expected. U.S allies are mad on the tariff placed on them and ready to strike counter-tariff.
Meanwhile, President Trump also scheduled to hold a meeting with the North Korean leader in Singapore on June 12. We could expect some movement in the market this week.
News to watch
04.30 AM UK Manufacturing Production, forecast increase of 0.3% month over month
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 11 – 15 June 2018
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD bull returned to the market as the pair challenging 1.1820. There is no breakout yet, but the prospect of bullish movement in EUR/USD has not died yet. If the pair could close above 1.1820 at the end of the week, then EUR/USD has a chance to extend correction toward daily SMA 200.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1710, 1.1650
Resistance: 1.1820, 1.1925, 1.2000
GBP/USD
Similar to EUR/USD, the bull slightly has upper hand in GBP/USD as the pair reached 1.3450. The story is the same, and we are waiting for a close above 1.3450 to confirm the bullish intention toward daily SMA 200. It will depend on U.S-North Korea meeting and the Fed interest-rate decision this week.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3330, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3450, 1.3500
USD/JPY
The bull is working hard to nullify the shoulder-head-shoulder pattern on USD/JPY daily chart. To nullify the pattern, the bull needs a close above daily SMA 200 initially and followed by a higher high immediately. On the other hand, the bear needs to push the price below previous extreme low around 108.10.
Short position with tight stop might be wiped when The Fed announce interest-rate. It is better to wait until the news released.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 109.00
Resistance: 110.00, 110.50, 111.00
AUD/USD
AUD/USD might be in mini bullish correction after the pair bounced from 0.7500 – 0.7550 floors. We expect the floor will be maintained this week and traders could use the level to look for a long position. Next momentum movement might occur after The Fed interest-rate decision, and it is better for traders to stay sideways for now.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7550, 0.7500
Resistance: 0.7600, 0.7640, 0.7690, 0.7750