USDX (USD Index)
The Fed rate-hike did not drive U.S dollar up, but President Trump $50 billion tariffs on China goods slapped the bear in the index. U.S dollar index jumped to test previous month high and almost breach it. There is small correction today, but we think the bull will manage to create a breakout. The situation also supported from Euro side where ECB announce the end of QE in December this year.
There is no major news today which mean nothing to change current direction.
News to watch
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 11 – 15 June 2018
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD slipped hard after the rally from the level near 1.1500 at the end of May. Currently, all of the gains erased in just one day and EUR/USD under risk of further bearish breakout. If the pair could not close the week above 1.1500, then it will not has a chance for a bounce in the coming week.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1580, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1710
GBP/USD
GBP/USD dropped from 1.3450 resistance and closed at 1.3250 support level. No breakout lower yet and it is still a safe situation for the bull. As long as the pair could maintain a position above 1.3250 by the end of the week, the trend will continue inside 1.3250 – 1.3450.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3330, 1.3450
USD/JPY
USD/JPY escaped the sell-off and held on above the daily SMA 200. The bounce is valid, but need more close confirmation above 111.00. Otherwise, we might see ranging movement between daily SMA 200 and 111.00 before next breakout.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 110.00, 109.00
Resistance: 110.50, 111.00
AUD/USD
The bear hit the trendline hard and close the pair below 0.7500. It is a strong bearish sign and will invite more selling. However, the pair traded at 0.7462, just 50 pips from previous month low. The bear might get cautious selling at the current level.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7400
Resistance: 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600