USDX (USD Index)
U.S dollar index rejected again from 95.00 resistance, and looks will move down toward 94.00 support level. The weakness might continue today following fourth of July holiday in U.S. However; trade wars issue could resurface anytime and trigger a flight to safe-haven assets such as U.S dollar.
News to watch
04.30 AM UK Services PMI, forecast reading of 54.0
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 2 – 6 July 2018
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD got some wind from German deal on immigration issue Yesterday. The pair is sloping upward, and looks will test 1.1710 resistance today. We expect the pair to continue its movement between 1.1500 – 1.1710 this week with a bearish bias.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1650, 1.1600, 1.1580, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1710
GBP/USD
The bounce in GBP/USD from bottom trendline and 1.3050 followed through by the bull Yesterday after bounce form 1.3125. The current direction is upward, but the pair might have trouble around 1.3250 and the top trendline. Traders could look for short position when the pair move toward both resistance as planned.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3100, 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3330
USD/JPY
The bull is losing grip in USD/JPY as the pair rejected again from 111.00 resistance. Moreover, this time the rejection produced a bearish engulfing pattern which is a reversal pattern. USD/JPY bear followed the pattern with a breakout lower today. If the bear could maintain position at the current level or lower then the bearish pattern will be confirmed, and USD/JPY could move further lower.
On the downward path, daily SMA 200 is the level to watch for a possible bounce.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 110.00, 109.50
Resistance: 110.50, 111.00
AUD/USD
No close below 0.7330 and a bounce happened yesterday. Although it is not a strong bounce, the bull might have secured range between 0.7330 – 0.7450. AUD/USD could move toward a level near 0.7450 before the change of direction happen. A short position near 0.7450 could be considered when a bearish pattern formed.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7330, 0.7300
Resistance: 0.7400, 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600