By Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM
Business Confidence to Be Precise
Business confidence is a key input for the RBNZ and the data out on Thursday at 0100am will be important for the RBNZ.
The last reading of -53.5 was the lowest reading since 2009. As this is a monthly survey I am expecting the result to be better this month. Why? Well it will depend on one thing- When is the survey is sent around? You see the survey itself asks questions of belief. Questions like ‘Do you believe that General Business Conditions in 12 months will have – improved, remain the same or deteriorated?
Here is a sample of the questions:
So, if these questions are asked after the Phase 1 Us-China potential deal was announced then business confidence will have improved. So, I am expecting an uptick in business confidence on this reasoning. A weak reading here and AUNZD longs should remain supported with buyers on pullbacks after the firm AUD CPI data from last night.