Last week, the dollar fell against a basket of world currencies as the governments and central banks across the world announced massive stimulus measures for easing concerns related to funding and liquidity. A $2.2 trillion economic stimulus package was announced by the House of Representatives to support businesses as well as activities hurt by the Covid-19 crisis. The dollar fell nearly 4.0 percent, registering its biggest weekly drop ever since March 2009.
In the upcoming week, Manufacturing PMI from China and Non-farm Employment Change, Jobless Claims, and Unemployment data from the United States stand out. Here is an outlook on a few important releases from around the world:
#1: New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (03/31/2020 Tuesday 00:00 GMT)
In New Zealand, the Business Confidence index reported by ANZ remained unchanged at the -19.40 percent levels in February from January’s -19.40 percent level.
#2: China Manufacturing PMI (03/31/2020 Tuesday 01:00 GMT)
In China, the official Manufacturing PMI reported by the NBS plunged to the record low level of 35.7 in February from the 50.0 level in the prior month. The reading for the month came in well below analysts’ expectations of 46.0 as the faster rate of spread of the coronavirus disrupted China’s supply chain. Output, new orders, raw materials inventories, employment, and supplier’s delivery time declined sharply. Input price inflation slowed down, while output charges fell at a much faster rate. Business sentiment deteriorated sharply.
Forecast for March 2020: 44.9
#3: United States CB Consumer Confidence (03/31/2020 Tuesday 14:00 GMT)
In the United States, the Consumer Confidence Index reported by the Conference Board edged up in February, following the increase in January. In February, the Index stood at the 130.7 level, up from January’s 130.4 level. While the Present Situation Index declined to the 165.1 level from the 173.9 level, the Expectations Index rose to the 107.8 level from the 101.4 level last month.
Forecast for March 2020: 115.1
#4: United States ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (04/01/2020 Wednesday 12:15 GMT)
In the United States, private businesses hired 183,000 workers in February after the job gain data for the prior month was revised downward to 209,000. The reading for the month beat analysts’ expectations for 170,000 job gain. While the service-providing sector hired 172,000 workers (mostly in education and health, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business industries), the goods-producing sector hired 11,000 jobs, driven by employment in the construction sector. The manufacturing sector shed jobs.
Forecast for March 2020: Private businesses are expected to shed 125,000 jobs
#5: United States ISM Manufacturing PMI (04/01/2020 Wednesday 14:00 GMT)
In the United States, the Manufacturing PMI reported by the Institute for Supply Management dropped to the 50.1 level in February from the 50.9 level recorded in January. The reading for the month came in below analysts’ expectations of hitting the 50.5 level. New orders contracted, production slowed, and both employment and inventories continued to decline. Further, price pressures declined. Globally, the supply chains were impacted and this affected the performance of the manufacturing sector. Among the six top industry sectors, Food, Beverage, Tobacco Products industry remained the strongest and was followed by Computer and Electronic Products. The weakest was Petroleum and Coal Products. Overall, the sentiment as regards near-term growth remained marginally positive.
Forecast for March 2020: 46.0
#6: United States Unemployment Claims (04/01/2020 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
In the United States, the number of people filing for jobless benefits zoomed to 3.28 million during the week that ended on March 21, the highest ever since the start of the series in 1967 and well above analysts’ expectations of one million. The sector that was the hardest hit was the accommodation and food services. The health care and social assistance, arts, entertainment and recreation, manufacturing industries, and transportation and warehousing sectors also shed jobs. The biggest increases in jobless filings were seen in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and California. The four-week moving average, which eliminates week-to-week volatility, jumped to the record high level of one million. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.8 million, above analysts’ expectations of 1.71 million. The report surprised markets as it sheds light on the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
#7: United States Average Hourly Earnings (04/02/2020 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In the United States, the average hourly earnings rose by 0.30 percent in February from the previous month.
Forecast for March 2020: 0.2 percent
#8: United States Non-Farm Employment Change (04/02/2020 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In the United States, the Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 273,000 on a month-on-month basis in February.
Forecast for March 2020: Non-farm payrolls are expected to decline by 81,000
#9: United States Unemployment Rate (04/02/2020 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In the United States, the unemployment rate dropped to the 3.5 percent level in February from the 3.6 percent level in the prior month. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at the 3.6 percent level. The number of jobless people dropped 105,000 to 5.79 million. Meanwhile, employment increased 45,000 to 158.76 million. The jobless rate has remained at either the 3.5 percent level or the 3.6 percent level for the last 6 months. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at the 63.4 percent level.
Forecast for March 2020: 3.8 percent
#10: United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (04/02/2020 Friday 14:00 GMT)
In the United States, the Non-Manufacturing PMI reported by the Institute for Supply Management rose to the 57.3 level in February from its 55.5 level in the prior month. The reading for the month beat analysts’ expectations of 54.9 and pointed towards a strong pace of expansion in the services sector in twelve months, boosted by new orders and employment. Supplier deliveries and inventories increased. Meanwhile, there was a slowdown in the business activity growth from the prior month. Costs increased at a slower pace. Most respondents were concerned as regards the coronavirus and its impact on the supply chain. They also experienced difficulty with respect to labor resources but remained positive on the overall economy and business conditions.
Forecast for March 2020: 48.0