GBP/USD Trend Line Break and Retest, Fib Support Levels

GBPUSD has staged an impressive breakout above the falling trend line that had been capping advances since early February, signaling that a shift in momentum could be underway.

Price surged to a high of 1.3593 before pulling back to its current level of 1.3525, and the question now is whether the dip will attract enough buyers to fuel the next leg higher.

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The Fibonacci retracement tool drawn from the swing high to swing low highlights where buyers could be waiting to rejoin the uptrend. The nearest support is the 38.2% Fib at 1.3429, which could be enough to keep losses in check and attract fresh bullish momentum.

A deeper correction could reach the 50% level at 1.3378, then the 61.8% Fib at 1.3328, which lines up closely with both the broken trend line and the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. This confluence zone could be the line in the sand for the pullback.

If any of these Fib levels hold as a floor, GBPUSD could resume the climb back toward the swing high at 1.3593 or even higher. A break below the 61.8% Fib and moving average support, however, could negate the bullish bias and send the pair back toward the lows around 1.3164.

The 100 SMA is crossing above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside and that the rally is more likely to gain traction from here. Both indicators are also beginning to slope higher, reinforcing the emerging bullish structure.

Stochastic is heading south toward the oversold region, though, reflecting fading bullish pressure in the near term. Once the oscillator reaches oversold levels and turns higher, that could be the signal that buyers are ready to step back in.

RSI has also pulled back from elevated territory and still has some room to slide before finding a floor, suggesting the correction could have a bit more to go before bulls regain the upper hand.

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