WTI crude oil recently busted through the ceiling around $78.50 per barrel then retreated upon testing the high near $81 per barrel. The Fibonacci retracement tool shows levels where buyers might be waiting to hop in.

The 38.2% Fib is around the $79 per barrel major psychological mark while the 50% Fib lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic support and former resistance zone. A larger pullback could test the 61.8% Fib at $77.74 per barrel and the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.

On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support is more likely to hold than to break. In that case, crude oil could soon make its way back up to the swing high.

Stochastic is still moving down to show that sellers are in control, and the oscillator has room to move south before indicating oversold conditions or exhaustion. Similarly RSI is heading south, so price might keep following suit while bearish momentum is in play.

WTI crude oil might take cues from the usual set of inventory data by the API and EIA, as well as headlines on geopolitical tensions. Worsening conflict could mean upside for the commodity since this would mean limited global supply.

Other factors that might impact crude oil price action in the week include the central bank decisions and NFP report, as well as leading jobs indicators. Both the BOC and ECB are expected to sound more dovish than before, possibly boosting risk assets on expectations of lower global borrowing costs later in the year.

Meanwhile, a jobs slowdown is expected in the US, and this might be enough to revive Fed rate cut talks for as early as May.