WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis for Sept. 5, 2022

WTI crude oil could be in for a reversal from its short-term selloff, as the commodity price is forming a double bottom on its hourly time frame. Price has yet to test the neckline around $90 per barrel.

A break above this resistance area could take crude oil up by the same height as the chart pattern, which spans around $86 per barrel to $90 per barrel. However, the 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA to suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

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If the neckline keeps gains in check, crude oil could dip back to the lows or even make new ones. Stochastic has some room to climb but is already nearing the overbought region to signal exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower would mean that selling pressure is picking up.

RSI is on middle ground to reflect consolidation, barely offering strong directional clues at the moment.

Crude oil is on stronger footing leading up to the OPEC+ meeting, as traders are anticipating more action from the cartel this week. Earlier on, Saudi Arabia suggested adjustments to their output targets in anticipation of an Iran nuclear deal.

However, since talks between Iran and the U.S. have stalled recently, production is still expected to remain at previous levels. The OPEC+ also revised market balances for 2022 and now sees demand lagging supply by 400,000 barrels per day, against 900,000 barrels per day forecast previously.

Worries about the lockdowns in China might also mean a fresh wave lower for crude oil, as this could dampen purchases of fuel and energy commodities.

The upcoming inventory reports from the API and EIA might provide some direction for the commodity later in the week, although the earlier draw in stockpiles seems to have been brushed off. Still, another large reduction could assure investors that demand remains supported.

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