WTI crude oil broke below its ascending trend line after peaking near the $93.82 mark, a break that points to a possible reversal of the uptrend that had been in place since mid-July.

Since then, price tumbled all the way down to the $77.97 low before staging a recovery that has brought the commodity back up to the $82.34 area. This bounce could still turn out to be nothing more than a correction within a larger downtrend, especially if it stalls out at a Fibonacci resistance level.

The Fibonacci retracement tool, measured from the $77.97 low to the $93.82 high, shows where sellers could be waiting to jump back in. The 38.2% level lines up at $84.02, followed by the 50% level at $85.89 and the 61.8% level at $87.77. A rejection at any of these levels could resume the slide, while a break above the 61.8% Fib could instead suggest that the broader uptrend is trying to reassert itself.

On the moving average front, the 100 SMA has curled over and is now crossing below its own recent path while still sitting above the 200 SMA, keeping the medium-term trend intact for now even as short-term momentum sours. Price recently dipped below both averages before reclaiming the shorter-term one, which could still act as a ceiling if the recovery loses steam.

Stochastic recently rebounded sharply from oversold territory, reflecting how stretched the selloff had become and giving the recovery some short-term fuel. RSI is also climbing back from the lower half of its range, suggesting buyers are regaining some ground, though there’s still room to run before overbought conditions would signal exhaustion.

If the Fibonacci resistance levels hold, WTI crude oil could resume its slide toward the $77.97 low or lower. The commodity could keep taking cues from geopolitical headlines, including the latest update that Oman had presented Iran with a proposal for a regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz.