USDX (USD Index)
There is no movement yet in U.S dollar index since it reached 94.00 resistance. The index currently under consolidation and nothing to expect yet. Today trading session will be a busy one with the release of data from U.S. The market will observe CPI, crude oil inventories, FOMC interest-rate decision and there is a speech by President Trump.
On interest-rate, the market expects 25 bps increase from 1.25% to 1.50%. Before the news, there might be strength in U.S dollar.
News to watch
08.30 AM U.S CPI, estimated an increase of 0.4% monthly. Core CPI expected increase of 0.2%
10.30 AM U.S Crude Oil Inventories, forecast deficit of 3.6 million barrels
02.00 PM Federal Funds Rate, forecast 1.5%
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 11 – 15 Dec 2017
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD once again found support at 1.1710 and hovering between 1.1710 – 1.1820 before FOMC interest rate decision. The pair might continue its sideways movement and decide next movement after the interest-rate announcement. Consensus expects a rate increase by 25 bps, without any rate hike, EUR/USD could jump above 1.1820.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1710, 1.1650
Resistance: 1.1820, 1.1850, 1.1925, 1.2000
GBP/USD
GBP/USD downward movement brings the pair inside 1.3300 – 1.3330 area. There is no break outside of 1.3300 – 1.3450 area yet and the pair might stay inside the range before FOMC rate announcement today. Traders could position for the long position if the market reacted bullishly after the news.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3300, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3342, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500
USD/JPY
USD/JPY move above 113.20 is significant as the level act as a flip level. The pair currently supported by 113.20 and will attempt to maintain the advantage above it. If USD/JPY could close the day above 113.20 and break above latest high (113.73), it has chance to reach 114.50 – 115.00
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 113.20, 112.50, 112.00, 111.60
Resistance: 114.50
AUD/USD
AUD/USD bounced from 0.7500 support and headed higher above 0.7550. The pair closed above the resistance and looked to add more gain today. Overall, the trend stays bearish, and it is not a good time to look for a long position as U.S interest-rate decision loom. AUD/USD could reverse its upward movement anytime and head lower below 0.7550. Traders might want to stay flat for now.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7500
Resistance: 0.7550, 0.7630, 0.7690