USDX (USD Index)
The previous day sell-off in U.S dollar index could not bring the index below 95.50 and there is a small bounce from the support level. Today, the bull still has control and the market seems will close the week above 95.50 and settle new index range between 95.50 – 96.70.
Aside from the bullish view, there is U.S job data which could shake the market. We will observe the release of job data and see market reaction toward the data. Bullish reaction expected at the moment as The Fed took a hawkish stance this week.
News to watch
08.30 AM U.S Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast increase of 185k
U.S Unemployment rate, forecast 3.8%
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 1 – 5 October 2018
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is on the defensive as the pair hanging at 1.1500. A little bit push by the bear will lead the pair to resume its bearish trend toward 1.1360. Traders will observe U.S job data today to see the market reaction before the week close. A sell-off from current level is a sign for next week bearish trend.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1360, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1580, 1.1600
GBP/USD
Diverging movement happened in GBP/USD. Most major pairs across the world are weakened vs. U.S dollar but GBP/USD took the higher path. The pair battling over 1.3000 support level and attempting to close the week above it. If the bull could secure a close above 1.3000 then it might cancel the current bearish trend and lead GBP/USD to trade between 1.3000 – 1.3250.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3000, 1.2800
Resistance: 1.3100,1.3125
USD/JPY
The touch down at 114.50 resistance resulted in profit-taking which brings USD/JPY to close below 114.00. We expect the weakness to continue and USD/JPY make a test on 113.20 broken resistance. Traders could look for long position when the retest happen. Meanwhile, shorting is not suggested but short-term traders could do it with a tight stop.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 113.20, 113.00
Resistance: 114.00, 114.50, 115.00
AUD/USD
Nothing bullish on AUD/USD daily chart, but shorting at the current level is not suggested. The safest way to place short position is when the pair makes retest on 0.7160. Without any major change in the direction, we expect AUD/USD to reach 0.7000 next week.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7100, 0.7160, 0.7300, 0.7330