GBP/USD long-term technical analysis

Brexit development might not the same as in UK PM Theresa May after her proposal voted down by MP. Even though the PM redo the proposal, it receives another rejection from MP. Latest development see MP seize control of Brexit from Theresa May and currently negotiating for a delay until June. However, Euro group do not like the idea and set early April as the deadline for the UK to agree on divorce deal.

GBP/USD expected to move cautiously before the deadline and might move wildly after “Deal” or “No deal” announced.

New Month

Monthly chart

The bounce initiated in January continue to have effect in February and March. However, this month, the market seems proceed with caution. It is the Brexit deadline month and up until now, the uncertainties continue to mount. Expect no movement yet until actual Brexit agreement reached. Meanwhile, GBP/USD might trade between 1.3000 – 1.3330 until breakout happens.

Weekly chart

The pair stay bullish in the weekly chart after repetitive bounces from 1.3000 support level. However, it is limited below 1.3300 and could not close above the level yet. GBP/USD might move inside the range between 1.3000 – 1.3250 while waiting for Brexit decisions.

Daily chart

No winner yet between the bull and the bear on the daily chart. The overall outlook is the same as the outlook on the weekly chart. GBP/USD expected to continue ranging movement between 1.3000 – 1.3250.

Trade plan

The long position might need to wait until pullback happens. 1.3000 and daily SMA 200 are levels to watch. On the upside, a breakout above 1.3250 followed by retest might provide traders with long opportunities. (Same strategy as previous month)

The short position is better avoided at the current time at least until the bullish momentum on daily chart receded. Traders could wait near 1.3300 – 1.3330 and 1.3450 – 1.3600 areas. (Same strategy as previous month)