EUR/USD long-term technical analysis
No change from the ECB side in the latest meeting, but the central bank promised the market that they could offer stimulus whenever inflation target not reached. From the Fed side, the central bank turned dovish and eliminate all odds for rate-increase. In fact, the market 100% bet the Fed will lower rate in the next FOMC meeting.
Recent development might provide EUR/USD chance to move higher. However, the U.S seems to look to create a trade war with the EU. At the start of this week as soon as U.S and China declare trade truce, Trump administration threat EU with tariff toward $4 billion value goods ranging from cheese, whiskey, scotch, and other products.
The situation is not ideal for EUR/USD bull, but the path is not clear yet for the bear too. We might see EUR/USD moving sideways for now.
Click here to see EUR/USD long-term analysis June 2019
New Month
Monthly chart
The pair launched upside in June and closed above 1.1300 but still outside of the purple area. No close above the trendline seen too which mean EUR/USD still in a consolidation period. Next direction of EUR/USD will depend on the pair reaction toward the trendline. A close below 1.1300 will trigger selling.
Weekly chart
On the weekly chart, we could see EUR/USD still struggling with weekly SMA 200. No significant close above the averages yet which mean the pair still in bearish-term. Traders could continuously monitor the pair reaction at the weekly SMA 200 to determine EUR/USD next direction.
Daily chart
The outlook on EUR/USD daily chart looks bearish as the pair rejected from the daily SMA 200. The recent downward movement has strong momentum. Fortunately for the bull, there is no bearish follow-up yet and the pair supported near 1.1300. Will the pair bounce and close above daily SMA 200? Alternatively, will it resume the bearish trend?
Trade plan
No trending movement saw yet on the EUR/USD chart. The pair is in consolidation period below the weekly SMA 200. Traders could use the weekly SMA 200 as a reference level to look for short positions, though we suggest continuing stay sideline for now.