Alcoa Corp. (NYSE:AA) Initiated by UBS

Alcoa Corp. (NYSE:AA) stock rose 0.68% (As on October 10, 11:27:10 AM UTC-4, Source: Google Finance) after UBS started coverage on the aluminum giant with a Neutral rating and a $43 target price. Alcoa ended the quarter with cash on hand of $1.6 billion. Cash provided from operations was $536 million. Cash used for financing activities was $349 million, primarily related to $275 million in share repurchases, $19 million in cash dividends on common stock, and $46 million in net distributions to non-controlling interest. Cash used for investing activities was $93 million, which includes $107 million of capital expenditures and $10 million of proceeds from the April 30, 2022 sale of Alcoa’s entire ownership interest in the Mineração Rio do Norte (MRN) bauxite mine. In the first half of 2022, the Company returned $387 million of capital to stockholders through $37 million in cash dividends and $350 million in share repurchases. In July 2022, the Company announced an additional $500 million share repurchase program; $150 million remained available for share repurchases at the end of the second quarter from a prior authorization.

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On the other hand, the Company expects total Aluminum segment shipments to remain unchanged from the prior forecast, ranging between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons in 2022. In Alumina, the Company has decreased its 2022 projection for shipments to range between 13.6 and 13.8 million metric tons, a reduction of 0.6 million metric tons from the prior forecast primarily due to the lower shipments in the first half of 2022. In Bauxite, the Company has decreased its 2022 projection for annual bauxite shipments to range between 44.0 and 45.0 million dry metric tons, a change of 2 million dry metric tons from the prior projection due to continuing disruptions in the Atlantic bauxite market and lower demand from refineries in the first half of 2022. For the third quarter of 2022, Alcoa expects higher sequential profitability in the Bauxite segment with increased shipments, as refinery demand improves in the third quarter. In Alumina and Aluminum, shipments are expected to increase but will not fully offset higher costs for energy and raw materials. The Company anticipates an approximately $20 million negative impact to net income in the third quarter as a result of the Warrick line curtailment. The decrease in production volume at the San Ciprián refinery reduces the impact of the continuing rise in natural gas prices but is not expected to improve net income significantly on a sequential basis. Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, the Company expects third quarter tax expense to approximate $100 million to $110 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

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