The rate dropped today and invalidated a rebound and now is almost to reach a dynamic support. The USD has taken the lead today and has forced the rate to drop again as the USDX has rallied from the lows. It remains to see what will happen on the USDX on the short term, but unfortunately for the USD, the rebound could be only temporary.

You should know that a USDX’s rebound will send the greenback much lower versus all its rivals. The corrective phase could continue if the USDX will increase in the upcoming days, right now we still need a confirmation that the rate will resume the downward movement.

The AUD/USD remains lower even if the United States economic data have failed to impress, the CB Consumer Confidence dropped from 130.0 points to 127.7 points, the specialists have expected to see an increase to 131.2 points.

The Richmond Manufacturing Index dropped significantly from 28 points to 15 points, much below the 23 estimate, the greenback received support only from the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, which it has increased by 6.4%, beating the 6.1% estimate.

The rate failed to stay above the lower median line (lml) of the blue ascending pitchfork and now is pressuring the first warning line (wl1) of the former minor black descending pitchfork. A valid breakdown below this dynamic obstacle will force the rate to drop further.

The major downside target will be at the median line (ML) of the major black descending pitchfork, it could be attracted by this line after the failure to reach and retest the upper median line UML of this pitchfork. This scenario will happen only if the USDX will have enough directional energy to start a significant bullish momentum in the upcoming period.

Right now is hard to talk about a rebound after the false breakout above the lower median line (lml) of the blue ascending pitchfork.