After falling below 0.6350 in Asia, AUD/USD went up. The outlook for the asset isn’t good because sentiment in the market is low. The US dollar index (DXY) and the S&P500 went up on Friday after a good report on US nonfarm payrolls (NFP).

The NFP for Friday was 263k instead of the expected 250k. This makes it more likely that there will be a fourth 75-bps rate hike. For the Fed to raise rates without hesitation, the economy needs to be in good shape and the job market needs to be strong.

The US CPI report will be watched by investors on Thursday. According to early estimates, the overall rate of inflation is 8.1%, which is less than 8.5%. The core CPI will go up from 6.3% to 6.5%. Rising interest rates from the Fed aren’t making much of a difference, but falling fuel prices in the US are.

Aussie bulls are waiting for this week’s data on what consumers expect to happen to prices. The newest report on the economy is 5.8%, which is up from 5.4%. This could force the RBA to act. RBA Governor Philip Lowe raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points, bringing it to 2.6%. He wants to get it up to 3.8%.

Conclusion

As the weekly moving average goes down, AUD/USD chart shows how pessimistic people are right now. The one-month moving average is not moving up or down, but it is going down.