Even though Retail Sales were lower than expected, the AUD/USD pair could fall to 0.6400. The economy grew by 0.6%, which was more than expected but less than the 1.3% growth seen before.

When there is a lot of inflation in the Australian economy and the RBA tightens policy, the central bank will be happy with better Retail Sales numbers. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) has gone up by 2.35 per cent because the RBA raised it. This is the fourth time this month that the RBA has raised the OCR.

The US dollar index goes up because of data on consumer confidence. From 103.6 to 108.0, the US Conference Board said. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will be happy to see that consumer confidence in the US economy is going up because that means demand is strong. This will make the Fed more likely to raise rates even more.
People will remember what Jerome Powell said. Most likely, Fed policymakers will decide what to do with the money in November and December. Powell will take a “hawkish” stance because the Fed’s rate hikes haven’t made prices go down.

Conclusion

Based on the data and hopes that Powell will be more hawkish, the AUD/USD is likely to fall further, which shows the triangle breakdown target.