AUD/USD Pulls Back Off 20-Month Highs After US Non-Farm Payrolls

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The AUD/USD currency pair on Friday pulled back off the current 20-month highs of about 0.7237 to trade at about 0.7149 after the latest US NFPs. The currency pair continues to trade within a highly volatile rising channel in the 60-min chart. 

It is now on the way down towards the trendline support. This could trigger another rebound at around 0.7127.  It has also dropped below the 100-hour and the 200-hour SMA lines. It continues to hug the line preventing it from crossing to oversold levels of the 14-hour RSI.

AUD/USD Fundamentals Overview

From a fundamental perspective, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at the back of a relatively busy period in both markets. Earlier in the week, the Reserve Bank of Australia chose to keep the base interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. The seasonally-adjusted retails ales for June beat the (MoM) expectation of 2.4% with 2.7% while trade balance missed A$8.8 billion with A$8.202 billion. The Commonwealth bank Manufacturing PMI for July beat 53.4 with 54 while Services PMI missed 58.5 with 58.2. 

In the US, the non-farm payrolls for July came in at 1.763M, which beat the expectation of 1.6 million jobs. The average hourly earnings for the month grew by 4.8% (YoY) versus an expectation of 4.2% while the unemployment rate provided a slight surprise of 10.2% versus an estimated rate of 10.5%. The labor force participation rate of 61.4% was also slightly better than the expected rate of 61.1%. Earlier in the week, the initial and continuing jobless claims outperformed expectations. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Services PMI were also better than expected.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the 60-min Chart)

Technically, the AUD/USD currency pair appears to have recently bounced off the trendline resistance at 0.7237 to pullback towards 0.7150. The pair continues to trade within an ascending channel which indicates a short-term bullish bias.

The bulls will be targeting the next rebound for profits at around 0.7176 or higher at 0.7199. On the other hand, the bears will look to extend the current pullback towards 0.7127 or lower to 0.7102.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the Daily Chart)

In the daily chart, the AUD/USD currency pair appears to be trading within a sharply ascending channel. This indicates a long-term bullish bias in the market sentiment. The pair is now on the verge of crossing to overbought levels of the 14-day RSI.

The bulls will look to propel the currency pair towards 0.7303 or higher to 0.7449. On the other hand, the bears will target long-term pullback profits at around 0.7014 or lower at 0.6852.

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