On Friday, the AUD/USD currency pair pulled back from the session highs of about 0.7108 to trade at about 0.7074. The currency pair trades within a consolidative triangle formation in the 60-minute chart.
The pair continues to trade slightly above the 100-hour moving average line, despite the latest pullback. As a result, the currency pair still has room left to run before reaching the oversold levels of the 14-hour RSI.
AUD/USD Fundamentals Overview
From a fundamental perspective, the AUD/USD currency pair trades during a relatively busy period in both markets. In Australia, the seasonally-adjusted employment change for February rose to 48.9k, up from 26.1k in January, beating the forecasted net change of 20.3k. The participation rate for the month also improved to 66.9, up from 66.7, beating the expectation of 66.7.
On the other hand, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the period missed the forecast of 4.1%, with 4.3%, up from 4.1%. Earlier in the week, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the base interest rate from 3.85% to 4.1%, as expected.
In the US, the initial jobless claims for last week came in better than expected, with 205k versus a forecast of 215k, down from the previous week’s claim count of 213k. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for March also came in stronger than expected, with 18.1 versus a forecast of 10, up from 16.3 in February. Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve chose to keep the base interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, in line with expectations.
On the other hand, the producer price index for February exceeded the (MoM) and (YoY) forecasts of 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively, with changes of 0.7% and 3.4%. The producer price index ex-food and energy for the period also outshone the forecasts of 0.3% (MoM) and 3.7% (YoY), with 0.5% and 3.9%, respectively.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the 60-min Chart)
Technically, the AUD/USD currency pair trades within a consolidative triangle formation in the 60-minute chart. The 14-hour RSI has recently pulled back to avoid entering overbought conditions.
Therefore, the bears will look to stretch the latest pullback towards 0.7033 or lower to 0.7000. On the other hand, the bulls will look to pounce on profits at about 0.7108 or higher at 0.7141.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the Daily Chart)
In the daily chart, the AUD/USD currency pair trades within an ascending channel formation. However, the 14-day RSI has recently pulled back to recover from overbought conditions.
Therefore, the bears will look to extend the latest pullback towards 0.6940 or lower to 0.6816. On the other hand, the bulls will look to pounce on profits at about 0.7186 or higher at 0.7312.