The Brent Oil dropped again today, but has failed to reach the 49.81 yesterday’s low, has found strong support at the 49.78 level and now has managed to squeeze a little.  Is trading right above a major dynamic support, a breakout will open the door for a larger drop in the upcoming months, but this scenario is less likely to happen right now.  A bounce back is more favored to come on the short term,could increase a little ahead of the OPEC meeting from May 25, a further production cut will help the oil to increase even more, but a failure to make another agreement will send the price tumbling in the upcoming months.

The price could be driven by the fundamental factors in the upcoming weeks, any rumor will shake the price, so you should be careful. Brent has increased a little even if the United States Crude Oil Inventories have dropped only to -0.9 million barrels in the previous week, less versus the -3.3M estimate and less versus the -3.6M in the previous reporting period.

The oil has continued to drop in the last day as the USD/CAD has managed to hit fresh new highs and maintains a bullish perspective.

The rate has dropped significantly  and now is very close to hit the red uptrend line, where he could find strong support again, a bounce back is more favored right now than a breakdown. However, we cannot exclude a breakdown in the upcoming days if the specialists will signal that the OPEC members will fail to sign another deal.

You can see that I’ve added a minor descending pitchfork to catch the downside movement, a throwback is favored right now as the rate has failed to reach and retest the median line (ml) of this pitchfork, could come to retest the upper median line (uml).

I’ve said in the previous articles that the rate could come back to test and retest the 53.03 static resistance before will resume the descending movement, technically is somehow expected to drop further in the upcoming months after the failure to stay above the median line (ML) of the major ascending pitchfork.