Why Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL) stock is crashing

Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL) stock fell over 8.4% on 26th March, 2019 (as of 11:50 am GMT-4; Source: Google finance) after the company  cut its annual profit forecast, expecting a hit from higher fuel prices and a strong dollar, though posted better than expected results for the first quarter of 2019. The company said it now expects adjusted earnings of $4.35 to $4.55 per share in 2019, compared with $4.50 to $4.80 estimated previously. The FactSet estimate for the full year is for $4.76. For the full year 2019, the earnings guidance now reflects $155 million, or 22 cents per share, on the back of fuel price and currency moving against the company. For the second quarter, Carnival expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of 56 cents to 60 cents, with fuel prices and currency exchange rates bringing down earnings by 8 cents per share year-over-year. The FactSet consensus for the second quarter is 72 cents. Net income totaled $336 million in the first quarter, which is down from $391 million last year.

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Moreover, based on current booking trends, the company continues to expect net cruise revenue to be up about 5.5%, with capacity growth of 4.6%. It also expects net revenue yields in constant currency expected to be up about 1%. The company still expects net cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day in constant currency for the fiscal year to be up about 0.5%. Further, the net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD in constant currency for the second quarter is expected to increase by about 1%. Changes in fuel prices and changes in currency exchange rates are expected to decrease earnings by eight cents a share. The constant currency net revenue yields are expected to be in line with the prior year

CCL in the first quarter of 2019 has reported the adjusted earnings per share of 49 cents, beating the analysts’ estimates for the adjusted earnings per share of 44 cents, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The company had reported the adjusted revenue of $4.67 billion in the first quarter of 2019, beating the analysts’ estimates for revenue of $4.31 billion. Gross revenue yields rose by 5.8 percent. In constant currency, net revenue yields increased 0.5 percent, better than December guidance of approximately flat. Gross cruise costs including fuel per ALBD increased 8.6 percent. In constant currency, net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD increased 0.9 percent, better than December guidance of up approximately 2.0 percent, mainly due to the timing of expenses between quarters.

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