Cocoa Inches Toward $10,000 Again As Fundamentals Support Crop

Cocoa futures inched toward the promised land of $10,000 to kick off the trading week, with the latest movements suggesting that the rally might keep on going. After touching $10,000 early last week, cocoa has stabilized, although with the crop gaining mainstream media attention, it is unclear if retail will soon join the picture. Until then, it will all be about what happens in West Africa.

May cocoa futures rose $183.00, or 1.87%, to $9,949 per metric ton at 13:45 GMT on Monday on the US ICE Futures exchange. Cocoa is coming off a weekly gain of 10% and a monthly push of around 55%. Year-to-date, cocoa has rallied 137%. Over the last 12 months, the crop has rocketed 240%.

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Output concerns in West Africa continue to influence cocoa prices while traditional buyers are still scooping up the bean. However, the biggest factor has been that production in Ghana and the Ivory Coast could be lower this year amid extreme weather conditions.

“The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa,” said Jack Scoville, a commodities strategist at The PRICE Futures Group, in a note.

There had been some good news heading into the Easter long weekend.

First, temperatures are expected to be near normal in West Africa. Second, ICE-certified inventories were higher at approximately 4.12 million bags.

“Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 9000, 8410, and 7710 May, with resistance at 10080, 10200, and 10320 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 7500, 6960, and 6500 May, with resistance at 8680, 8720, and 8840 May,” Scoville added.

So far, the higher cocoa prices have yet to bleed into the marketplace. However, these are for future deliveries, meaning that chocolateflation might not be witnessed until later this year.

In other agricultural commodities, May corn futures shed $0.08, or 1.81%, to $4.34 per bushel. May wheat futures declined $0.115, or 2.05%, to $5.4875 a bushel. May soybean futures dipped $0.0375, or 0.31%, to $11.8775 per bushel.

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