Crude oil long-term projection

The economic recovery is good news for crude oil prices. At the current time, traders and investors cautiously positive that coronavirus vaccination will help the economy to return to post-covid19 level. However, there are challenges to vaccine availability globally which could hinder the economic recovery. Moreover, U.S elected president, Joe Biden might change the country’s policies which could change the direction of major financial instruments.

Crude oil prices traded positively November – January and might experience a pullback in February – March. Traders will monitor closely the recovery progress this several weeks or months.

New Month

Monthly chart

Crude oil surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and closed above it last month. The price continues building bullish pressure this month and is expected to continue further upward to target monthly SMA 200 and $57.60. AS long as the price continues upward, there is no reason for traders to take short positions.

Weekly chart

On the weekly chart, the price seems hesitant to continue moving upward. Currently, the price is trading near the weekly SMA 200 for several weeks. Will the price continue its upward movement toward $57.60 without bearish correction? Or will it start a bearish correction toward the level around $47.00 – $50.00 and bounce from it?

Daily chart

The situation on the daily chart mostly sideways since the middle of January. Crude oil prices consolidate between $51.00 – $53.80 and might close the month inside the area. No conclusion yet where the price will move next. It could either pull back toward the $47.80 – $48.70 area or continue to reach $55.00.

Trade plan

Crude oil prices outlook continue bullish but mostly sideways since the middle of January. We think the price will continue upward if the economy showing recovery after coronavirus vaccination. Traders might want to be careful as data will roll-out soon in several weeks or months.