USDX (USD Index)
U.S dollar index under pressure yesterday after ECB press conference. The conference told a mixed tone with the hawkish comment on the optimistic economy situation with less risk and dovish tone on inflation. Although inflation hit 2% target, ECB was cautious as core inflation stays at 0.9%.
Today, there is non-farm employment data which is the last data watched by the Fed before deciding on interest-rate. It is expected to outperform the expectation similar to ADP result on Wednesday.
News to watch
04.30 AM UK Manufacturing Production, estimated -0.6% monthly.
08.30 AM U.S Non-Farm Employment Change, estimated 200k job added
08.30 AM U.S Unemployment Rate, consensus 4.7%
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 6 – 10 March 2017
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
Falling wedge pattern on EUR/USD h4 chart was broken, and EUR/USD shot up without stop above resistance 1.0590. The price looks will reach 1.0640 before Non-farm employment data and might continue upward after the news release.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.0590, 1.0562, 1.0513, 1.0500
Resistance: 1.0640, 1.0710, 1.0800
GBP/USD
No bounce yet in GBP/USD, the pair stick near its trendline and looks will continue moving near it. The outlook for UK economy forecasted will struggle post-Brexit, and there is much homework to do for the UK to stabilize its economy after Brexit. Traders will watch for a bounce from trendline today with NFP as the trigger.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.2130, 1.2100, 1.2000
Resistance: 1.2200, 1.2213, 1.2230, 1.2300
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is moving up as expected, and the pair almost reaches 105.90 before the Non-farm employment data release. The news will become the catalyst for next movement, either a breakup above 115.90 or a sharp bounce lower.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 114.00, 112.87, 112.56, 112.00, 111.62
Resistance: 115.90, 117.52
AUD/USD
The downward movement in AUD/USD continues after it moves inside 0.7500 – 0.7550 range. The pair might continue moving lower inside channel range or hovering between 0.7500 – 0.7550.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7523, 0.7500
Resistance: 0.7550, 0.7590, 0.7625, 0.7660