EUR/JPY breakdown needs confirmation February 20, 2017

The rate has decreased today and has deleted the yesterday’s gains, is trading much below the 120.00 psychological level, but we still need a confirmation that rate will drop much deeper in the coming period. The price has decreased surprisingly today as the Nikkei stock index has edged higher and looks determined to approach and reach the 19700 psychological level, the index continues to move sideways on the short term, I hope that we’ll have a clear direction very soon, the perspective remains bullish on the short and the medium term, so the Yen could drop again versus all its rivals.

The Yen has dragged the rate down even if the Japanese economic data have come in mixed, the Flash Manufacturing PMI  rose from 52.7 to 53.5 points in February, exceeding the 52.1 estimate, signalling that the expansion continues. The Flash Manufacturing PMI has reached the highest level of the last many  years. The rate has decreased significantly as the Euro has traded in the red versus all its rivals today, even if we had some good numbers from the Euro-zone.

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The rate has fallen below the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork and now is approaching the  upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork, remains to see what will happen when will hit this level. The breakdown below the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork is signalling that the bears are in control, a drop below the upper median line (UML) will attract more sellers, which will drive the price towards the next major downside target from the 61.8% retracement level.

A retest of the broken median line could bring us a good selling opportunity, could also decrease along the upper median line (UML) of the major descending and could approach the lower median line (lml) of the ascending pitchfork, but this scenario will take shape only if the Nikkei stock index will decrease again, this scenario is less likely to happen right now. So we still need a  confirmation that the rate will decrease in the coming weeks.

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