XOM Long-term outlook
XOM share prices not making much progress since 2014 high. The share prices continue producing lower high on the chart and moving with $70.00 support level as a line on the sand. One year prior, a breakdown below $70.00 happened as U.S and China enter a trade war. The trade war still continuing this year.
Aside from the trade war issue, rising tension between U.S and Iran also putting risk to Exxon operation in Iraq. Moreover, lack of action to weather climate change caused large investor divesting XOM shares. In the long-term, it seems XOM will come under trouble if a major switch from fossil fuel to other energy happen.
XOM clearly sideways on the monthly chart, the share prices movement has been trapped inside a triangle consolidation. However, we have several breakdowns below the monthly SMA 200 which might indicate a possible switch to a bearish trend.
At the current time, it is too early to determine if XOM will start a new bearish trend. Traders need to continuously observe the price movement inside the triangle and wait for a breakout to happen.
The weekly SMA 200 has proven itself as major resistance for XOM. Whenever the share prices manage to climb above the averages, the bear always able to push the price it lower again. At the current time, XOM looks will move upward and reach the averages. Will XOM get rejected again from the averages when the share prices reach it?
On the daily chart, XOM currently testing the daily SMA 100 & 200. The initial test shows bearish rejection from the averages. But, it is possible for XOM to make another attempt to continue further upside. If the share prices could climb above the averages then it will target the blue trendline upside.
The bullish trade needs to wait for the share prices to close above daily SMA 200 and successfully retest it.
The bearish trade needs to wait for strong rejection from daily SMA 200. Alternatively, traders could wait until the share prices get near weekly SMA 200 or the top trendline to take short positions.