Last week was busy with Brexit getting delayed to Halloween and the Fed and the ECB expressing caution. The European Union granted a six-month extension for the Brexit and it is now expected to take place by October 31st Halloween. However, the U.K. may choose to approve the current agreement and leave earlier. In essence, Brexit is back on the drawing board. Anything is possible including cancellation of Brexit, a softer exit, a second referendum, new elections, or a hard Brexit. GBP/USD pair did not see any fast movement last week
In the U.S., the minutes of FOMC meeting reiterated the need to observe patience as regards hiking rates. The Fed also opened the door to an interest rate cut. Meanwhile, the ECB decided to leave interest rate unchanged as expected and President Mario Draghi reiterated that the risks are more towards the downside. The euro declined but recovered later.
The key announcements scheduled for the upcoming week include China GDP, lots of data from the U.K, and US retail sales. Here is an outlook on some of the important economic data scheduled to be announced from around the world:
#1: Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey (04/15/2019 Monday 14:30 GMT)
Released on a quarterly basis, the highly respected report from the central bank enables traders to get an idea of the direction of the interest rate decisions. It is also respected for its predictive qualities as regards future economic conditions. This is because the firms that are surveyed are selected based on the composition of the GDP of the nation. Traders care because it provides an indication of the economic health of the nation.
#2: Australia RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (04/16/2019 Tuesday 01:30 GMT)
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting two weeks after the announcement of the Cash Rate. It provides a detailed account of the most recent meeting of the RBA Board and in-depth insight into the economic conditions that impacted the decision as regards setting interest rates.
#3: U.K. Average Earnings Index (04/16/2019 Tuesday 08:30 GMT)
The total earnings of workers in the U.K., including bonuses, rose by 3.4 percent annually during the three-month period to January after the reading for the prior period was revised upward to 3.5 percent. The reading for the month beat analysts’ expectations for an increase of 3.2 percent. Wages grew faster finance and business services, manufacturing, and construction, while it remained steady in the public sector. Meanwhile, wages increased less in services, wholesaling, retailing, hotels, restaurants, and in the private sector.
Excluding bonuses, wages grew 3.4 percent, the same rate as in the prior period. The reading matched with analysts’ expectations. In real terms, wages including bonuses rose 1.5 percent, while those excluding bonuses increased 1.4 percent. Forecast for the three-month period to February 2019: 3.5 percent
#4: New Zealand CPI (04/16/2019 Tuesday 23:45 GMT)
In New Zealand, the Consumer Price Index increased 0.10 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the December quarter of last year. Forecast for the first quarter of 2019: an increase of 0.3 percent is on the cards
#5: China GDP (04/17/2019 Wednesday 02:00 GMT)
China’s GDP advanced 6.4 percent on a year-on-year basis in the final quarter of last year after registering a growth of 6.5 percent in the prior quarter. The reading for the December quarter matched with analysts’ expectations. This was the lowest GDP growth rate ever since the global economic crisis, amid weakening domestic demand, intense trade dispute with the United States, and disturbing off-balance-sheet local government borrowings. Forecast for the first quarter of 2019: 6.3 percent
#6: U.K. CPI (04/17/2019 Wednesday 08:30 GMT)
In the U.K., the annual inflation rate increased to 1.9 percent in the month of February from 1.8 percent in the prior month. The reading for February came in above analysts’expectations of 1.8 percent. Inflation rose mainly because of an increase in the prices of food, cultural and recreational goods, and alcohol and tobacco. Forecast for March 2019: 2.0 percent
#7: Canada CPI (04/17/2019 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.70 percent in the month of February from the previous month.
#8: Canada Trade Balance (04/17/2019 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed down to C$4.25 billion in January after the reading for the prior month was revised upward to C$4.82 billion. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to come in at C$ 3.5 billion. This was the second biggest trade gap ever. While exports rose by 2.9 percent (first increase ever since July) on stronger crude oil export prices, imports rose at a slower pace of 1.5 percent, driven by aircraft purchases.
#9: U.K. BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks (04/17/2019 Wednesday 13:00 GMT)
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak in Paris at the Network for Growing the Financial System Conference. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates.
#10: Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (04/18/2019 Thursday 01:30 GMT)
Australia added 4,600 jobs in February. Meanwhile, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate declined to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent in the prior month. The reading for the month came in below analysts’ expectations of 5.0 percent. This was the lowest unemployment rate ever since June 2011. Forecast for March 2019: 15,200 job additions and 5.0 percent, respectively
#11: France Flash Services PMI (04/18/2019 Thursday 07:15 GMT)
In France, the IHS Markit Services PMI declined to 49.1 in the month of March from 50.2 in the previous month. The reduction in new orders accelerated, driven by a decline in export orders for three years. Output fell, though at a slower rate, from that in the prior month. Further, the job creation rate eased to its lowest rate ever since January 2017. Meanwhile, input price inflation increased marginally amid higher fuel costs and an increase in salaries. However, output charges remained stable for the second month in a row and business confidence was at its strongest level ever since November last year on hopes of bagging large contracts and plans of expanding client bases. Forecast for April 2019: 49.8
#12: Germany Flash Manufacturing PMI (04/18/2019 Thursday 07:30 GMT)
In Germany, the IHS Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 44.1 in the month of March from the preliminary reading of 44.7 as well as 47.6 in February. It pointed to a sharp contraction in manufacturing activity ever since July 2012, amid a decline in new orders, which was partly driven by a further slump in exports, according to final estimates. Both new business and overseas orders fell mainly because of uncertainty related to Brexit and trade tariff tensions, weakness in the automotive sector, and softer global demand. Output also declined, with manufacturers of intermediate goods reporting the steepest fall. Capital goods producers also followed suit. Employment declined for the very first time in three years and inflationary pressures eased. Above all, business confidence dropped to the most pessimistic level for more than six years. Forecast for April 2019: 45.2
#13: Germany Flash Services PMI (04/18/2019 Thursday 07:30 GMT)
In Germany, the IHS Markit Services PMI for March was revised upward to 55.4 from the preliminary reading of 54.9. In February, the reading came in at 55.3. The reading represented the strongest expansion in as many as six months. The Services PMI rose amid higher demand and growth in customer numbers. New business rose the most ever since September in spite of a renewed contraction in new work coming from overseas. Job creation was at the strongest level ever since October. Input cost inflation was at its lowest level in as many as eleven months. Output prices increased at a record rate. Above all, business confidence declined slightly but stood at the second-highest in the last six months. Forecast for April 2019: 55.0
#14: U.K. Retail Sales (04/18/2019 Thursday 08:30 GMT)
In the U.K., retail trade rose by 0.4 percent on a month-on-month basis in February after the reading for the prior month was revised downward to an increase of 0.9 percent. The reading for February beat analysts’ expectations for a 0.4 percent decline. Growth was seen in all the main sectors, except food stores, which registered the biggest decline ever since December 2016. Sales of fuel jumped 2.2 percent and non-food trade rose by 0.9 percent, driven by higher sales at household goods stores, non-specialized stores, and other stores. Forecast for March 2019: -0.3 percent
#15: Canada Core Retail Sales (04/18/2019 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, retail trade excluding autos rose by 0.10 percent on a month-over-month basis in January after the reading for the prior month was revised upward to a decline of 0.8 percent. Analysts had expected the reading to come in at a gain of 0.2 percent.
#16: U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (04/18/2019 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
In the U.S., retail trade dropped by 0.2 percent in February after the reading for the prior month was revised upward to represent a growth of 0.7 percent. The reading for the month missed analysts’ expectations for an increase of 0.3 percent. Sales of furniture, clothing, food, electronics and appliances, building materials, and gardening equipment fell. Core retail sales decreased 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis in February. Core retail sales for the prior month were revised upward to represent an increase of 1.4 percent. Analysts had expected core retail sales to increase by 0.4 percent. Forecast for March 2019: retail sales and core retail sales are expected to come in at 0.9 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively