In Paris, a suspected terrorist strike has once again placed security issues at the forefront. As the suspected strike has happened just three days ahead of the first round of elections for choosing the next presidential in France, the odds of the major contestants could be impacted. Further, the incident could encourage the electorate to vote for Marine Le Pen, the far-Right Front Nationale leader whose campaign has been losing steam in the recent times. In the meanwhile, the British pound surged following the announcement of snap elections in the U.K. on hopes that the Brexit would be softer than expected.
French presidential election, rate decision in the Eurozone and Japan, U.S. durable Goods orders and GDP data from the U.S., U.K. and Canada are some of the releases scheduled for the coming week. Here is an outlook on these major events on this week’s forex calendar:
#1: Presidential Election in France (04/23/2017 Sunday)
In France, the election will be held in two rounds: the first round of election will be held on Sunday and the second round is scheduled to be held on 7th of May. The suspected terrorist shooting spree in Paris, which resulted in the death of one policeman, has brought up the issue of the country’s fight against terror to the fore once gain. There is a high level of unpredictability as the gap between the four major front runners has narrowed considerably. Two of the candidates who amass the most number of votes would compete once gain in the run-off election to be held towards the end of the first week of May.
#2: Germany Ifo Business Climate (04/24/2017 Monday 8:00 GMT)
The morale of businessmen in Germany surged in March to the highest level in as many as six years. This suggested that the businesses operating in the country are not very much concerned about the new protectionist policy announced by the U.S. President Donald Trump and the country’s own election issues. The German business climate index came in at 112.3 points in March, following the reading of 111.1 in the previous month. The rise was driven by improved sentiment in construction, manufacturing and retailing. These figures indicate that the annual growth might reach the 2 percent mark this year. The German Ifo business climate index is expected to edge up to 112.4 in April.
#3: U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (04/25/2017 Tuesday 14:00 GMT)
In the U.S., consumer confidence index edged up to 125.6 points in March, recording its highest level since December 2000, in view of positive attitudes shown by consumers towards current conditions. The reading for March came in much higher than 113.9 points predicted by economists. The business conditions index rose to 32.2 percent from 28.2 percent in the previous month. Additionally, the outlook index, including the short-term outlook index, was upbeat. The reading for April is expected to come in at 123.7 points.
#4: Australia CPI (04/26/2017 Wednesday 1:30 GMT)
The consumer prices in Australia rose by 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 after increasing by 0.7 percent in the previous quarter. For the 12 months to the December quarter, inflation rose by 1.5 percent compared to the increase of 1.3 percent registered for the twelve months period to the September quarter. It is expected that the increase in consumer prices for the first quarter of this year would be 0.6 percent.
#5: Trimmed Mean CPI (04/26/2017 Wednesday 1:30 GMT)
For the final quarter of 2016, the trimmed mean CPI reading came in at 0.4 percent against analysts’ forecast of 0.5 percent and 0.4 percent for the previous quarter. The trimmed mean CPI is expected to come in at 0.5 percent for the first quarter of this year.
#6: Canada Core Retail Sales (04/26/2017 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, retail sales surged 2.2 percent on month-over-month basis in January after the reading for the previous month was revised downward to a decline of 0.4 percent. The reading also exceeded analysts’ expectation for an increase of 1.1 percent. The biggest jump in retail sales since March 2010 was driven by the 3.8 percent sales increase recorded by motor vehicle and spare parts dealers. Core retail sales, which excludes automobiles and gas, jumped 1.9 percent in January after posting a decline of 1.5 percent in December. Core retail sales recorded the biggest gains in a year.
#7: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (04/26/2017 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)
Crude stocks in the U.S fell by one million barrels during the week that ended on April 14. However, the gasoline stocks increased unexpectedly. Analysts had expected crude oil stocks to decline by as many as 1.5 million barrels. Stocks of gasoline rose by 1.5 million barrels. In spite of the fall in crude oil inventories, stocks remained very high.
#8: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe Speaks (04/26/2017 Wednesday)
Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is scheduled to speak at the Renminbi Global Cities Dialogue Dinner in Sydney. Markets remain volatile during his speeches as traders try to decipher clues on the direction of interest rates in the future.
#9: Bank of Japan Policy Rate/Japan Interest Rate Decision (04/27/2017 Thursday 3:00 GMT)
The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy during the meeting held in March though the Federal Reserve in the U.S. increase the interest rate for the second time in as many as three months. The Japanese central bank’s decision was in line with the analysts’ forecast. Rising protectionist sentiment around the globe and expectations of further U.S. interest rate increases led the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda to maintain the ultra-loose monetary policy by not changing the short-term interest rate target of -0.1 percent and pledge to guide the 10-year government bond yield at around zero percent through aggressive asset purchases. According to Kuroda, the economy is continuing to improve modestly and that it would remain so in the near future.
#10: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement (04/27/2017 Thursday 3:50 GMT)
Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement is one of the primary tools that the central bank makes use of for communicating with investors as regards the monetary policy. The statement provides the outcome of the members’ decision on asset purchases. Further, it provides a commentary as regards the economic conditions that influenced the latest interest rate decision. More importantly, the statement projects the country’s economic outlook and provides clues on future interest rate decisions.
#11: Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report (04/27/2017 Thursday 5:00 GMT)
The bank of Japan’s quarterly outlook report provides valuable insight into the central bank’s view on inflation and economic conditions. These are the key factors that would shape the direction of the monetary policy in the future.
#12: Bank of Japan Press Conference (04/27/2017 Thursday 6:30 GMT)
The Bank of Japan makes use of the press conference as a tool to communicate with the investors as regards the monetary policy decisions. In addition to covering the factors that led to the most recent rate decision in detail, the press conference provides some information on the country’s overall economic outlook, inflation and clues on future monetary policy decisions.
#13: Eurozone Interest Rate Decision (04/27/2017 Thursday 11:45 GMT)
The European Central Bank decided to maintain its stimulus policy during the monetary policy meeting in March. The central bank would continue to do so at least till the end of this year. However, Mario Draghi, ECB President, said that the urgency to ease the monetary policy further has faded and there is no threat of deflation any longer. Germany, the largest economy in Europe has asked the ECB to cut down its 2.3 trillion euro bond-buying scheme as inflation and growth have strengthened. Draghi, however, is of the opinion that the growth risks continue to remain tilted to the downside.
#14: European Central Bank Press Conference (04/27/2017 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
The press conference is held about 45 minutes after the announcement of the Minimum Bid Rate. It lasts for about an hour and has two parts: the first part is reading of a prepared statement and the second part is an open questions session for the press. As the questions often lead to unscripted answers, heavy market volatility can be expected during the press conference.
#15: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (04/27 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
In the U.S., orders for durable goods rose more than what the analysts expected in February. Orders increased by 1.7 percent following the 2.3 increase in the previous month. Meanwhile, economists had expected a gain of 1.1 percent. With this the durable goods orders have increased for six months in a row now. This indicated the rising domestic demand. This in turn will broaden the U.S. economic growth during the coming months. In the mean time, the core durable goods orders, which excludes transportation equipment, edged up 0.5 percent following the 0.2 percent increase recorded in January. Core durable goods orders are expected to increase by 0.4 percent in February.
#16: U.S. Unemployment Claims (04/27/2017 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
The number of American people filing for unemployment claims rose to 244,000 following the increase to 234,000 in the previous week. This is against analysts’ expectation that the number of new people filing for joblss claims would reach 241,000 mark. However, the labor market in the U.S. is nearing full employment situation as the unemployment rate is at near the 10-year low of 4.5 percent. According to experts, the rise in claims could be due to the volatility that is experienced often during this time of the year because of the different timings Easter holidays and spring. The four-week moving average number of claims fell by 4,250 to 243,000.
#17: U.K. GDP Data (04/28/2017 Friday 8:30 GMT)
U.K.’s economy expanded 0.6 percent in the last quarter of 2016 and beat analysts forecasts for a growth of 0.5 percent. The economic growth was driven by robust consumer spending in spite of the Brexit vote. However, many analysts are of the opinion that a slowdown would occur this year as inflation is expected to double this year and reduce household spending. While the services sector grew 0.8 percent, industrial production remained flat and construction advanced 0.1 percent. The U.K. is expected to report a growth of 0.4 percent in the first quarter.
#18: Canadian GDP Data (04/28/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
The Canadian economy reported upbeat GDP data at the start of this year as it grew at an annualized rate of 2.3 percent with a 0.6 percent gain on the month. In January, the manufacturing sector outperformed by registering a growth of 1.9 percent. The goods and services sectors also experienced growth. The analysts have revised their growth estimates for the first quarter to 3.5 percent from the previous estimate of 2.7 percent. However, the governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz remains cautious as he observed that the downside risks for the economy continue to remain because of the protectionist attitude of the U.S. and the housing market bubble.
#19: U.S. GDP Data (04/28/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In the last quarter of 2016, the American economy grew, but failed to meet analysts’ expectations. The economy expanded 2.1 percent with the annual growth remaining below the 3 percent mark consecutively for eleven years now. However, the rate of expansion slowed down from the 3.5 percent recorded in the third quarter. President Donald Trump said that he would boost the economy by aggressively cutting down tax, reducing regulations and increasing government spending on public projects. However, economists are of the opinion that it will take a soome time for the results to become visible.

