Currencies traded mixed manner during the last week of the first quarter of this year. US GDP for the last quarter of the previous year was revised upwards to an annual rate of 2.1 percent from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent as consumer spending rose to 3.5 percent. This indicates the importance of consumer spending as far as economic growth of the U.S. is concerned. Meanwhile, the employment market continued to tighten. While economists expect that growth in the first-quarter would be 1.9 percent, the Trump administration is talking about a growth rate of 3 percent or more.
#1: Australia Retail Sales (04/03/2017 Monday 1:30 GMT)
In Australia, retail sales rose by 0.4 percent on month on month basis in January, following a 0.1 percent decline in December last year. However, the reading was in line with analysts’ estimates. Further, the gain for the month of January was the biggest since October 2016. While sales in sectors including household goods retailing, cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services and other retailing increased, sales fell in clothing, personal accessory and footwear retailing, and department stores. Retail sales is expected to rise 0.3 percent in February.
#2: U.K. Manufacturing PMI (04/03/2017 8:30 GMT)
In January, the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6 from 55.9 in December last year. The reading came in below analysts’ expectation of 55.6. This indicated that the expansion in factory activity was the weakest since November 2016. New orders and output increased at a slower pace, while employment, exports and purchasing activity accelerated. Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 55.1 level in February.
#3: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (04/03/2017 Monday 14:00 GMT)
In February, the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 57.7 better than analysts’ expectation for a reading of 56.2. The reading for February was the highest since December 2014. This indicated the manufacturing sector’s solid growth. Though there is a difference in the ISM and the manufacturing PMI figures, the general trend indicates that the manufacturing sector is strong. In March, the manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to the 57.2 level.
#4: Australia Trade Balance (04/04/2017 Tuesday 1:30 GMT)
Australia’s trade surplus narrowed by as much as 61 percent, rather unexpectedly, to A$1.30 billion in the month of January from the figure for December last year which was revised downward to a surplus of A$3.33 billion. The reading also missed analysts’ expectation of A$3.8 billion. The reading for January was the smallest in three months. Exports dropped 3 percent from the previous month, while imports increased 4 percent. It is expected that the trade surplus for February will be A$1.75 billion.
#5: Australia Rate Decision (04/04/2017 Tuesday 4:30 GMT)
The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the official interest rate at 1.5 percent in March. The central bank has not changed the rate for six now. Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, often speaks about keeping the rates on hold in order to boost inflation and maintaining financial stability in the midst of record household debt. Meanwhile, policymakers are keeping track of the interest rate movements in countries around the world prior to making making a move. In the meeting in April, the RBA is not likely to change the official cash rate.
#6: Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Statement (04/04/2017 Tuesday 4:30 GMT)
The rate statement is a tool that the RBA’s Board makes use of to communicate with investors as regards the monetary policy. It consists of the outcome of the board members’ decision on interest rates and a commentary on the economic conditions that led to the decision. More importantly, it provides the country’s economic outlook and clues on future decisions.
#7: U.K. Construction PMI (04.04/2017 Tuesday 8:30 GMT)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI edged up to 52.5 in February from 52.2 in January. However, the reading came in better than the market expectation of 52.2 driven by growth in the civil engineering sector. Construction companies also remained upbeat about future growth prospects for the next 12 months as 48 percent of respondents predicted an increase in business activity.
#8: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe Speaks (04/04/2017 Tuesday 9:15 GMT)
Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to speak at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner in Melbourne. Volatility can be expected during his speeches as traders try to decipher clues on interest rate decisions.
#9: New Zealand GDT Price Index (04/04/2017 Tuesday 12:00 GMT)
The GDT Price Index, which measures the weighted-average price of nine dairy products sold in auction every two weeks, rose 1.7 percent to $3,101 during the auction held on March 21, 2017 after plunging 6.3 percent in the previous auction. The GDT Price Index is a leading indicator of New Zealand’s trade balance.
#10: Canada Trade Balance (04/04/2017 Tuesday 12:30 GT)
Canada’s trade surplus widened to C$0.81 billion in January from the figure for the previous month which was revised downward to C$0.45 billion. The reading however came in above the market expectation for a surplus of C$0.7 billion. Exports rose 0.5 percent to a record C$46.5 billion, while imports dropped 0.3 percent to C$45.5 billion. It is expected that the trade surplus for February would be C$0.7 billion.
#11: U.K. Services PMI (04/05/2017 Wednesday 8:30 GMT)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Markit/CIPS Services PMI declined to 53.3 in February from 54.5 in January. The reading, which came in below market expectation of 54.1, was the weakest since September 2016. Meanwhile, the business optimism remained strong. The index is expected to edge up to 53.5 in March.
#12: U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (04/05/2017 Wednesday 12:15 GMT)
According to the ADP report for February, companies added as many as 298,000 jobs, shifting focus away from the services sector to the goods producers. Economists expected that 184,000 jobs would be added. These results, which preceded the Non-Farm Payrolls report, paved the way for the rate increase by the Fed. The ADP report for March is expected to show a jobs gain of 191,000.
#13: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (04/05/2017 Wednesday 14:00)
The services sector in the U.S. expanded in February as the index climbed to 57.6 from 56.5 in the previous month, beating economists expectation that the index will remain unchanged. A majority of the respondents remained positive about the overall economy and business conditions. The business activity index rose to 63.6, the highest reading since February 2011, from 60.3. The new orders index rose to 61.2 from 58.6 and the employment index edged up to 55.2 from 54.7. Non-Manufacturing PMI reading is expected to come in at 57.1 in March.
#14: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (04/05/2017 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)
Crude oil stocks in the U.S. increased by 867,000 barrels during the week ended March 24. However, as refineries increased output the gasoline and distillate inventories declined. Analysts expected crude oil stocks to increase by 1.4 million barrels. Crude oil imports by the U.S. fell by 543,000 barrels per day.
#15: U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (04/05/2017 Wednesday 18:00 GMT)
The minutes of the Fed’s meeting in March wherein the interet rate was increased is due to be released in April. This will provide an in-depth account as regards the reasons behind the 0.25 percentage rate hike. In the press conference that followed the rate hike decision, Janet Yellen had said that the U.S. is doing well and policymakers are confident. The minutes will provide the Fed’s outlook as regards further rate increases this year.
#16: US Unemployment Claims (04/06/2017 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
The number of new American people filing claims for jobless benefits dropped by 3,000 during the week that ended on March 25. This indicated a loss of momentum in the robust labor market. The 258,000 number of new claims that were filed was higher than the 240,000 increase expected. However, the number of claims have remained below the 300,000 level which is associated with the healthy labor market. As of now the labor market is near full employment. The four-week moving average claims rose by 7,750 numbers to 254,250. Unemployed claims is expected to come in at 251,000 for the next reporting period.
#17: U.K. Manufacturing Production (04/07/2017 Friday 8:30 GMT)
In the U.K., activity in the industrial and construction sectors slowed down in January. Manufacturing production contracted by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.9 percent fall in December 2016. The fall in manufacturing production was driven by the the highly erratic pharmaceuticals sector. The manufacturing production is expected to grow by 0.3 percent in February.
#18: Canadian Employment Data (04/07/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
The Canadian economy added as many as 15,000 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate to near the ten-year low of 6.6 percent. A gain of 105,000 full-time positions was offset by a decline of 90,000 part-time jobs. The reading was, however, far better than analysts’ expectation for a gain of 600 jobs. This suggested that the Canadian economy has turned the corner. Economists expect Canada to add 5,700 jobs and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.7 percent in the unemployment rate.
#19: US Non-Farm Employment Data (04/07/2017 Friday, 12:30 GMT)
U.S. non-farm payrolls data released in February showed that 235,000 jobs were added. The reading beat analysts’ expectations of 196,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2 percent and the unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in spite of the higher participation rate in the employment market. Forecast for March: 176,000 new jobs, 0.2 percent increase average hourly earnings and unemployment rate to remain unchanged at the 4.7 percent level.