Last week the dollar was under pressure and trading was turbulent. President elect Trump gave a press conference and is scheduled to the assume office during the course of the upcoming week. In the first press conference after his election victory, Trump did not mention about fiscal stimulus. This is a cause of worry for markets. As a result, the dollar lost some ground. On the other hand, the US Consumer Sentiment stood at 98.1 in January as analysts expected. Retail sales rose by 0.6 percent on an increase in demand for autos. Further, producer prices climbed 0.3 percent following a 0.4 percent increase in the previous month. Overall, the recent economic data releases point towards a strong growth in the final quarter of 2016. In the coming week, the releases include speeches by Mark Carney and Janet Yellen, Inflation data from the UK and the US, Employment data in the UK and Australia and rate decisions in Canada and the euro-zone.
#1: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks (01/16/2017 Monday 19:30 GMT)
Governor of the UK central bank Mark Carney is scheduled to speak in London. He said last week that the central bank will most likely improve its economic forecast in the coming month despite concerns about the Brexit. Market volatility can be expected.
#2: UK inflation data (01/17/2017 Tuesday 9:30 MT)
In the UK, consumer prices rose in November by 1.2 percent from 0.9 percent in October, driven by a sharp increase in petrol and clothing. However, the decline in sterling in the recent times is likely to further increase clothing inflation during the course of the year. If the sterling continues to remain weak, the increase in raw material prices will affect consumer spending. The Bank of England expects that inflation will continue to rise during 2017 to 2.7 percent and remain above the 2 percent target until 2020.
#3: New Zealand GDT Price Index (01/17/2017 Tuesday 15:00 GMT)
The GDT price index, which represents the weighted-average price of nine dairy products that are sold at auction every 2 weeks, fell by 3.9 percent in the auction held on January 3, 2017.
#4: UK Prime Minster Theresa May Speaks (01/17/2017 Tuesday)
UK Prime Minister Theresa May is scheduled to speak in London about triggering Article 50. Markets may remain volatile during her speeches.
#5: UK Claimant Count Change/Average Earnings Index (01/18/2017 Wednesday 9:30 GM)
In November, the UK’s employment data came in weaker than expected. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose by 2,400 to 809,000. Further, the employment rate slipped to 74.4 percent during the three months to October. This showed that the UK market is losing momentum because of the EU referendum.
Meanwhile, the average earnings picked up more than expected to 2.6 percent, or 2.5 percent excluding bonuses. However, the number of people that are out of work, but considered economically inactive, increased by 76,000 over the period to 8.9 million.
#6: US CPI/Core CPI (01/18/2017 Wednesday 13:30 GMT)
In the US, the consumer prices rose at a slower pace in the month of November. However, the underlying trend showed inflationary pressures amid rising rents. In the US, consumer prices rose 0.2 percent, in line with analysts’ forecast, following a 0.4 percent increase in October. Core CPI also increased 0.2 percent in November. Forecast for December: CPI 0.3 percent and Core CPI 0.2 percent, respectively.
#7: Canada Rate Decision (01/18/2017 Wednesday 15:00 GMT)
The Canadian central bank did not change its overnight rate at the meeting held in December. Though there is an improvement in global economic conditions, uncertainty continues to be high and this has badly affected business confidence as well as investment. Forecast for January is the same 0.5 percent. The Bank of Canada will release the monetary policy report and hold a press conference following the interest rate announcement.
#8: Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks (01/18/2017 Wednesday 21:00 GMT)
Federal Reserve chairperson Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak in San Francisco. Market volatility can be expected.
#9: Australia Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (01/19/2017 Thursday 00:30 GMT)
In Australia the number of jobs increased by 39,100 in the month of November. It is expected that 10,200 new jobs would be added in December. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate increased to 5.7 percent in the month of November from 5.6 percent in the previous month. The reading came in slightly above the market consensus, but was the highest since August. Forecast for December: 5.7 percent.
#10: Eurozone Rate Decision (01/19/2017 Thursday 12:45 GMT)
The European Central Bank maintained the minimum bid rate at 0.0 percent in the December meeting, but cut down asset purchases to 60 billion euros per month from the current 80 billion euros. The bank has also prolonged the bond-buying program by nine months to end of 2017. The ECB will hold a press conference following the rate announcement. Forecast for January: 0.0 percent.
#11: US Building Permits (01/19/2017 Thursday 13:30 GMT)
The number of building permits issued in November in the US shrank by 4.7 percent to 1.20 million units, but remained above the 1.20 million units level for the third straight month. Economists expect that housing will continue to grow in spite of the rising mortgage rates. Forecast for December: 1.22 million units.
#12: US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (01/19/2017 Thursday 13:30 GMT)
In the Philadelphia area, manufacturing activity weakened in December to 0.9 from 1.5 points in November. New orders remained positive and the 6-month outlook for new orders also rose by 18 points to 40.1. Forecast for January: 16.3.
#13: US Unemployment Claims (01/19/2017 Thursday 13:30 GMT)
The number of American people filing for unemployment benefits remained low in spite of the 10,000 increase recorded last week. Forecast for the next reporting period: 252,000.
#14: US Crude Oil Inventories (01/19/2016 Thursday 16:00 GMT)
US crude oil stocks increased 4.1 million barrels in the week that ended January 6, 2017. Analysts’ expectation was that stocks would increase by 0.9 million barrels. Oil prices dropped last week and the trend is likely to continue amid worries about the OPEC deal and expectations for higher US output.
#15: Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks 01/20/2017 Friday 1:00 GMT)
Federal Reserve chairperson is scheduled to speak at the Stanford Institute on Economic Policy Research. Volatility can be expected.
#16: China GDP (01/201/2017 Friday 2:00 GMT)
China’s economy grew by 6.7 percent in the third quarter of 2016, keeping up the momentum in the prior two quarters. The reading came in as analysts expected and the growth was driven by an increase in fixed asset investment, government spending and retail sales. China is expected to keep up the pace of growth in the fourth quarter as well.
#17: China Industrial Production (01/20/2017 Friday 2:00 GMT)
In China, industrial production grew 6.2 percent on year-on-year basis in November after increasing 6.1 percent in the previous two months. The reading also came in slightly above the market consensus of 6.1 percent. Industrial production grew at the fastest rate since August. Forecast for December: 6.1 percent.
#18: UK Retail Sales (01/20/2017 Friday 9:30 GMT)
In the UK, retail sales increased 0.2 percent in November following a downwardly revised 1.8 percent increase in October. The reading was in line with market expectations. Forecast for December: -0.1 percent.
#19: Canada CPI (01/20/2017 Friday 13:30 GMT)
Canada’s CPI declined by 0.4 percent in November.
#20: Canada Core Retail Sales (01/201/2017 Friday 13:30 GMT)
Canada’s core retail sales increased 1.4 percent on month-over-month basis in November.