Forex Market Outlook For The Week March 25 – 29, 2019

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The markets moved last week because of Fed decision and Brexit news. The U.S. data stand out for the upcoming week which also happens to be the last week of March. Here is an outlook on some of the key release from around the world:

#1: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (03/26/2019 Tuesday 14:00 GMT)

In the U.S., the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in February after the decline in the previous month. The Index currently stands at 131.4, up from the 121.7 level in January. While the Present Situation Index rose to 173.5 from 170.2, the Expectations Index jumped to 103.4 from 89.4. Forecast for March 2019: 132.1

#2: New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement (03/27/2019 Wednesday 01:00 GMT)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand uses the Rate Statement as a tool to communicate with investors as regards the monetary policy. It provides the outcome of the members’ decision on interest rates and a commentary on the economic conditions that impacted their decision. More importantly, it provides an economic outlook and clues on future decisions.

#3: New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate (03/27/2019 Wednesday 01:00 GMT)

forex market outlookThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave the official cash rate at the same record low level of 1.75 percent during the meeting on February 13, 2019. This was widely expected by the analysts. According to policymakers, low-interest rate supports domestic inflation and economic growth. They also highlighted that the demand for exports from New Zealand may reduce because of the global economic slowdown.

The Monetary Policy Committee also noted that the inflation rate is close to the target rate of 2.0 percent because of petrol prices. They also noted that the monetary policy should be supportive in order to keep the inflation near the target. Further, policymakers added that interest rates will remain at the current level through the years 2019 and 2020 and the interest rate could move up or down in the next meeting. Forecast for March 2019: 1.75 percent

#4: Euro Area ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks (03/27/2019 Wednesday 08:00 GMT)

Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt at the conference ‘ECB and Its Watchers’. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates.

#5: Canada Trade Balance (03/27/2019 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)

The merchandise trade deficit of Canada widened to C$4.59 billion in the month of December lasts year after the reading for the prior month was revised downward to a deficit of C$1.98 billion. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to come in at C$2.8 billion. The trade deficit for December is the largest on record as exports fell 3.8 percent because of lower energy products sales amid the decline in crude oil prices. Imports increased by 1.6 percent because of energy product purchases. Forecast for January 2019: C$2.3 billion deficit

#6: New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (03/28/2019 Thursday 00:00 GMT)

In New Zealand, the business confidence index remained unchanged at -30.90 percent in February, the same level of -30.90 percent as in the previous month.

#7: U.S. Final GDP (03/28/2019 Thursday 12:30 GMT)

America’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the final quarter of last year, beating analysts’ expectations for a 2.4 percent increase, according to the initial estimate. In the previous period, the growth was 3.4 percent. The expansion of GDP in real terms in the December quarter of last year reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures, federal government spending, and private inventory investment. However, the positive contributions were offset in part by negative contributions from local and state government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports rose. Final GDP figure for the last quarter of 2018: 2.4 percent

#8: New Zealand RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr Speaks (03/28/2019 Thursday 20:00 GMT)

Adrian Orr, Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, is scheduled to in Wellington, about the future of the monetary policy framework of New Zealand’s at an event hosted by the Central Bank. Audience questions expected. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates.

#9: U.K. Current Account (03/29/2019 Friday 09:30 GMT)

In the U.K., the current account gap widened to £26.52 billion in the September quarter of last year after the reading for the prior quarter was revised downward to a deficit of £19.95 billion. Analysts had expected the current account deficit to come in at £21.2 billion. This is by far the largest current account deficit ever since the September quarter of 2016. All the key components contributed to the reduction of the current account balance. The primary income deficit increased to £GBP 11.11 billion driven by the increase in profits generated by foreign investors on their foreign direct investment in the U.K. Further, the shortfall in goods and services grew to £8.78 billion amid a decline in the trade in services surplus. Moreover, the secondary income deficit rose to £6.63 billion. Forecast for the final quarter of 2018: £22.9 billion deficit

#10: Canada GDP (03/29/2019 Friday 12:30 GMT)

Canada’s economy contracted 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis in December last year, the same rate as in the prior month. Analysts had expected the economy to stall. The country’s economy has contracted for the third time in four months. The goods-producing industries registered a decline for the fifth month in a row. Excluding the gains in forestry, fishing, and hunting; and agriculture sectors, declines were observed in quarrying, mining, oil and gas extraction, utilities, construction, and manufacturing. On the other hand, the service-producing industries expanded 0.2 percent, after remaining unchanged in November. This sector was driven by gains in the wholesale; transportation and warehousing; retail trade; professional services; finance and insurance; and accommodation and food services.

#11: U.K. Parliament Brexit Vote (Tentative 03/29/2019)

The Brexit saga continues despite the fact that the U.K. is all set to leave the European Union by March 29 unless an extension is formally agreed upon. This agreement is likely to continue until March 28. An extension may be granted, but the uncertainty remains high.

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