Last week, the GDP data released in the United States of America showed that the growth is sluggish. Economic growth during the first three months of this year was just 0.7 percent. This is the weakest GDP reading in as many as three years. The main reason behind the weakness in growth was consumer spending which remained very mild. President Donald Trump has promised a 4 percent growth in a bid to end the economic sluggishness. After Trump took over as the President of the U.S., he has repeatedly said that his aim is to boost growth rate through tax reform and trade regulations. According to analysts, the chances of the U.S. getting to the 4 percent growth rate is very very slim. In addition, the increase in durable goods orders was not up to analysts expectations. Durable goods orders rose by 0.7 percent, but core durable goods orders declined by 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, jobless claims data also came in higher than expected reaching 257,000 numbers, following an increase of 14,000 from the previous week. Here is an outlook on some of the key releases for the coming week:
#1: U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Speaks (05/01/2017 Monday 11:45 GMT)
Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury secretary, is scheduled to speak in Los Angeles at the Milken Conference. He often speaks on a wide range of topics, including those that have a direct impact on the market.
#2: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (05/01/2017 Monday 14:00 GMT)
The Manufacturing PMI computed by the Institute for Supply Management fell to the 57.2 level in the month of March from the reading of 57.7 in the previous month. However, the data came in better than analysts’ expectation for a reading of 57. New production and orders slowed down a little, but the sentiment of the manufacturers, in general, remained positive. It is expected that the index would fall slightly to the 56.6 level when the data for April is released.
#3: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (05/02/2017 Tuesday 1:45 GMT)
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.2 in March from the reading of 51.7 recorded in February. The reading for the month came in below analysts’ consensus of 51.5. New orders and output eased as business confidence softened and new export orders increased the least in as many as three months. Staffing levels continued to show a downward trend. Work backlogs increased further and finished goods inventories fell. Input and output prices continued to remain high despite dropping for three consecutive months. Though China’s manufacturing economy has improved there are signs of a weakening prior to the second quarter. Forecast for the month of April: 51.4
#4: Australia Cash Rate (05/02/2017 Tuesday 4:30 GMT)
During the meeting early this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to hold the cash rate unchanged at the record low of 1.5 percent. This was widely expected by the market. Policymakers said that the economy is on a transition path following the boom in mining investments and the recent data are consistent with moderate growth. Market expects the central bank to hold the rates at the same level during the meeting in May as well.
#5: Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Statement (05/02/2017 Tuesday 4:30 GMT)
Published on the first Tuesday of every month, except January, the rate statement is a one of the tools that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Board makes use of to communicate to investors as regards the monetary policy. The statement outlines the outcome of the last meeting and provides a commentary on the economic conditions that led to the decision. More importantly, the statement discusses the country’s economic outlook and provides clues on future decisions.
#6: U.K. Manufacturing PMI (05/01/2017 Tuesday 8:30 GMT)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI declined to 54.2 in March from the reading for February which was revised downward to 54.5. The reading for the month also came in way below analysts’ expectation of 55.1. The reading for March was the lowest in as many as four months. Growth in output and new orders slowed down though the pace of employment creation was the fastest in the last 18 months. Forecast for April: 54.0
#7: New Zealand GDT Price Index 05/02/2017 Tuesday 12:00 GMT)
Global dairy prices increased for the third consecutive time at the international auction held on April 18, 2017, suggesting that the recovery staged last year is once again on track. The GDT Price Index rose by 3.1 percent and the average selling price was $3,139 per ton. In the auction held two weeks ago, the index had risen by 1.6 percent.
#8: New Zealand Employment Change (05/02/2017 Tuesday 22:45 GMT)
In New Zealand, the number of employed people increased by 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year against analysts forecast for a gain of 0.7 percent. According to Statistics New Zealand, employment was driven by the hospitality sector, food services and retail trade. This was followed by the construction and professional services sectors. Forecast for the first quarter of this year is also an increase of 0.8 percent in employment.
#9: New Zealand Unemployment Rate (05/02/2017 Tuesday 22:45 GMT)
Unemployment rate in New Zealand rose to 5.2 percent in the last quarter of 2016, according to figures released by Statistics New Zealand. The unemployment rate increased from the reading of 4.9 percent in the previous quarter. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to come in at 4.8 percent in the December quarter last year. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.1 percent in the first quarter of this year.
#10: U.K. Construction PMI (05/03/2017 Wednesday 8:30 GMT)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI in the U.K. declined to 52.2 in March from 52.5 in the previous month. The reading for March missed analysts expectation of 52.4. It indicated weakness in the construction sector because of a weaker increase in residential building activity. Both commercial and civil engineering activity rebounded. Forecast for April: 52.1
#11: U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 05/03/2017 Wednesday 12:15 GMT)
In the U.S., private businesses hired 263,000 workers in March compared to the revised (downward) hiring figure of 245,000 for February. The reading for March came in well above analysts’ expectation of 187,000. This is the biggest gain in private jobs since December 2014. The services sector added 181,000 jobs. Forecast for April: 178,000
#12: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (05/03/2017 Wednesday 14:00 GMT)
In the U.S., the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 55.2 in March after recording a 16-month high reading of 57.6 in February. The analysts had expected the reading to come in at 57 in March. This is the lowest reading for the index since October last year as new orders, employment, production and inventories slowed down. Forecast for April: 56.1
#13: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (05/03/2017 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)
Crude oil stocks in the U.S. fell by 3.641 million barrels during the week that ended on April 21 following the 1.034 million barrel stock decline reported for the previous period. Market had expected a decline of 1.66 million barrels. Gasoline stocks increased by 3.369 million barrels against analysts’ expectation that it would drop by 1.020 million barrels.
#14: U.S. FOMC Statement (05/03/2017 Wednesday 18:00 GT)
Generally, the FOMC changes the statement a little bit at time of release. Traders often focus on these changes. The FOMC communicates the monetary policy to the investors about monetary policy through the statement. The statement reveals the outcome of the members’ vote on interest rate. It also provides a commentary on the current economic conditions, outlook and offers clues on future votes.
#15: U.S. Federal Funds Rate (05/03/2017 Wednesday 18:00 GT)
The Federal Reserve increased the target range for the federal funds by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent during the meeting in March. The decision was in line with analysts’ expectation as the labor market has strengthened and the economic activity in the country continued to expand, though at a moderate pace. Economists expect another two interest rate hikes during the course of this year. The Fed is expected to maintain the rates at the same level during the meeting scheduled for May.
#16: Australia Trade Balance (05/04/2017 Thursday 1:30 GMT)
The trade surplus for Australia widened 138 percent to A$3.57 billion in February from the reading for January which was revised upward to A$1.50 billion. The reading for February also beat market expectation for a surplus of A$1.8 billion. This is the second-largest surplus reading on record. Exports rose 1.0 percent on month to A$32.41 billion and imports fell 5.0 percent to A$28.83 billion.
#17: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe Speaks (05/04/2017 Thursday 3:10 GMT)
Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is scheduled to speak in Brisbane at the Economic Society Business Lunch. Markets remain volatile during his speeches as traders try to decipher clues on interest rate decisions.
18: U.K. Services PMI (05/04/2017 Thursday 8:30 GMT)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Markit/CIPS Services PMI which gives an indication on the state of business activity in the U.K. rose to 55.0 in March from 53.3 in the previous month. The reading came in above analysts’ expectation of 53.5. This is the highest level for the index in three months. Incoming new work increased at the strongest rate, but the job creation pace fell to the weakest level since August last year. The survey showed that firms are optimistic about the year-ahead as regards the business outlook. Forecast for April: 54.6
#19: Canada Trade Balance (05/04/2017 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
In February, Canada recorded a trade deficit of C$0.97 billion after the trade surplus for the previous month was revised downward to C$0.42 billion. Analysts had expected Canada to report a trade surplus of C$0.5 billion. Exports declined by 2.4 percent to C$44.3 billion, while imports rose by 0.6 percent to C$46.3 billion. Forecast for March: surplus of C$0.3 billion.
#20: U.S. Unemployment Claims (05/04/2017 Thursday 12:30 GMT)
The number of American people filing for jobless benefits increased by 14,000 to 257,000 during the week that ended on April 22, 2017. The number of claims was higher compared to 243,000 for the previous week. Analysts had expected the reading to come in at 245,000. The four-week moving average, which eliminates the weekly volatility, fell by 500 242,250. Forecast for the next reporting period: 246,000
#21: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Speaks (05/04/2017 Thursday 16:30 GMT)
Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to speak in Switzerland at the Jean Monnet Foundation. Markets often remain volatile during his speeches. This is because traders try to decipher clues on the direction of interest rate in the future.
#22: Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks (05/04/2017 Thursday 20:25 GMT)
Stephen Poloz, governor of Bank of Canada, is scheduled to to speak in Mexico City at the CanCham Mexico and Club de Industrialists. The text of the speech will be released 15 minutes ahead of the speaking time. Markets often remain volatile during his speeches. This is because traders try to decipher clues on the direction of interest rate in the future.
#23: Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement (05/05/2017 Friday 1:30 GMT)
Released on a quarterly basis, the monetary policy statement provides insight into the central bank’s view on the country’s economic conditions and inflation, which are the key factors that decide the future of monetary policy. These factors influence the interest rate decision.
#24: New Zealand Inflation Expectation (05/05/2017 Friday 3:00 GMT)
The inflation expectation report is published approximately 30 days ahead of the end of the quarter. As part of the survey, about 100 business mangers are contacted and asked as to where they expect the prices to be in the next two years time.
#25: Canada Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (05/05/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
Canada added 19,400 jobs in March, which was much better than what the market expectation for an addition of 5,000 jobs. While full-time jobs rose by 18,400 numbers, part-time employment increased by 1,000 numbers.
In Canada, the unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in the month of March from 6.6 percent in the prior month. The reading was in line with analysts’ expectation.
Forecast for April: employment change an increase of 20,000 jobs and unemployment rate of 6.7 percent.
#26: U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (05/05/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In the U.S., average hourly earnings increased 0.2 percent or 5 cents in March from February. On year-on-year basis, average hourly earnings rose by 2.7 percent. Forecast for April: an increase of 0.3 percent.
#27: U.S. Non Farm Employment Change (05/05/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In the U.S., non farm payrolls increased by 98,000 in March, which was way below the revised (downward) reading of 219,000 increase reported for February. Analysts had expected an addition of 180,000 jobs. This is the lowest payroll number since May last year. Retailers cut jobs, but employment rose in professional and business services and mining sectors. Forecast for April: addition of 194,000 jobs
#28: U.S. Unemployment Rate (05/05/2017 Friday 12:30 GMT)
Unemployment rate in the U.S. dropped to 4.5 percent in March from 4.7 percent in February. The reading came in better than analysts’ expectation that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.7 percent. This the lowest jobless rate ever since May 2007. The number of unemployed people in the country declined by 326,000 to 7.2 million. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at an eleven-month high of 63 percent. Forecast for April: 4.6 percent
#29: Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks (05/05/2017 Friday 17:30 GMT)
Janet Yellen, Chairperson of the Federal Reserve in the U.S., is scheduled to deliver a talk on the subject “125 Years of Women’s Participation in the Economy” in Providence at Brown University. Markets often remain volatile during her speeches.