Forex Market Outlook For The Week May 13 – 17, 2019

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Last week, the United States raised duties on several Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent. The Ministry of Commerce in China responded by announcing that it would be constrained to take countermeasures. However, the US dollar reacted sluggishly to these announcements. In the U.K., the uncertainty about Brexit continued as the hope that the British Prime Minister will enter into an agreement with the opposition leader faded away. The British pound collapsed by over 200 points but closed the week at 1.3000. Having said that here is an outlook for the upcoming week:

#1: U.K. Average Earnings Index (05/14/2019 Tuesday 08:30 GMT)

forex market outlookIn the U.K., total earnings of workers, including bonuses, rose by 3.5 percent annually during the three-month period to February, the same rate as in the previous three-month period. The reading for the current period was in line with analysts’ expectations. This is the fastest increase ever since the three-month period to July 2008. Earnings grew faster in construction and manufacturing, while it remained steady in wholesaling and retailing sectors, hotels and restaurants, and in the private sector. However, the earnings of workers grew less in the services sector, finance and business services industry, and in the public sector. Excluding bonuses, workers’ earnings rose by 3.4 percent after the reading for the previous period was revised upward to an increase of 3.5 percent. Earnings of workers, in real terms, including and excluding bonuses rose by 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. Forecast for the three-month period to March 2019: Workers’ earnings including bonuses are expected to increase by 3.4 percent

#2: Australia Wage Price Index (05/15/2019 Wednesday 01:30 GMT)

In Australia, wage growth unexpectedly decelerated in the final quarter of last year. Wage Price Index, excluding bonuses, rose by 0.5 percent during the quarter, extending the period of moderate growth in hourly wages. Analysts had expected wages to grow by 0.6 percent. In real terms, hourly wages increased by a moderate 0.5 percent. Forecast for the first quarter of 2019: Wage Price Index is expected to increase by 0.6 percent

#3: Canada CPI (05/15/2019 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)

In Canada, the Consumer Price Index increased 0.70 percent in the month of March on a month-on-month basis.

#4: U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (05/12/2019 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)

In the U.S., retail trade soared 1.6 percent on a month-on-month basis in March after the 0.2 percent decline in February. The reading for March beat analysts’ expectations for a 0.9 percent gain. This is the biggest jump in retail trade ever since September 2017. The increase in retail trade was driven by sales of motor vehicles and many other goods.

Core retail sales, which exclude autos, jumped 1.2 percent, following the 0.2 percent decline in the prior month. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.7 percent in core retail sales.

Forecast for April 2019: Retail sales and core retails sales are expected to come in at 0.2 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively

#5: Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (05/16/2019 Thursday 01:30 GMT)

In Australia, employment rose by 25,655 in the month of March after the job addition for the prior month was revised upward to an increase of 10,717. The reading for the month beat analysts’ expectations for an increase of 12,000.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to the 5.0 percent level on a seasonally adjusted basis in March from near the eight-year low of 4.9 percent reported in the prior month. The reading for the March was in line with analysts’ expectations.

Forecasts for April 2019: Job additions – 15,200; Unemployment rate – 5.0 percent

#6: Canada BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks (05/16/2019 Thursday 15:15 GMT)

Stephen Poloz, Governor of Bank of Canada, is scheduled to hold a press conference in Ottawa to discuss the Financial System Review. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches. This is because traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates.

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