Last week the U.S. dollar traded mixed amid the release of the all-important inflation data. In the U.S., inflation rate finally started rising. The consumer prices rose by 1.8 percent on a year-over-year basis. Retail sales data was also better than expected. While the positive inflation and retails sales data boosted the dollar, tax reform talk and political issues, including developments in the Mueller investigation, weighed on the greenback.
The euro rose on upbeat German GDP data, but the unimpressive inflation data put a little bit of pressure on the currency’s upward move. Political developments, both internal and external, pulled the pound down even though the economic data released during the course of the week were actually good. In Australia, the mixed jobs figures did not provide much support to the Aussie. In Japan, GDP data came in lower than analysts’ expectation and this triggered flow of funds into safe-haven investments.
During the upcoming week, the key U.S. data scheduled for release include the durable goods orders and housing data. Here is an outlook on some of the releases:
#1: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Speaks (11/20/2017 Monday 14:00 GMT)
Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to testify before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee in Brussels on the economy and monetary policy. Markets often experience volatility during his speeches as traders look for clues on interest rates.
#2: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Speaks (11/20/2017 Monday 16:00 GMT)
Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to testify before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee in Brussels on the European Systemic Risk Board. Markets often experience volatility during his speeches as traders look for clues on interest rates.
#3: Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (11/21/2017 Tuesday 16:00 GMT)
The minutes of the monetary policy meeting is published after the announcement of the Cash Rate. It provides a detailed account of the Reserve Bank of Australia Board’s most recent monetary policy meeting. It also provides insights into the economic situation that impacted their decision.
#4: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe Speaks (11/21/2017 Tuesday 9:05 GMT)
Philip Lowe, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is scheduled to speak at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner to be held in Sydney on the recent developments in the Australian and global economy. As questions from the audience are expected, the markets may remain volatile during his speeches.
#5: U.K. Inflation Report Hearings (11/21/2017 Tuesday 10:00 GMT)
The Bank of England Governor and the Monetary Policy Committee members are scheduled to testify before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament on inflation and economic outlook. The hearings last for a few hours and cause market volatility. This is because the traders look for clues on interest rates and comments about the forex markets.
#6: U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks (11/21/2017 Tuesday 23:00 MT)
Janet Yellen, the Fed Chair, is scheduled to take part in a panel discussion on the topic “In Conversation with Mervyn King” at the Stern School of Business in New York University. Market volatility can be expected during her speeches.
#7: U.K. Autumn Forecast Statement (11/22/2017 Wednesday 12:30 MT)
Released annually, the autumn forecast statement provides an update on the economic outlook and a preview of the government’s budget for the coming year. Expected income, spending, and borrowing, and financial objectives are included in the statement.
#8: U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (11/22/2017 Wednesday 13:30 GMT)
Durable goods orders data reflect the government’s investment and give an idea of the GDP figures. Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose by 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in September, the same rate as in the prior month. The reading for the month came in above analysts’ expectation of 0.5 percent increase. Forecast for October: 0.4 percent increase.
#9: U.S. Unemployment Claims (11/22/2017 Wednesday 13:30 GMT)
The number of American people filing for jobless benefits rose by 10,000 to 249,000 during the week that ended on November 11 from the prior week’s reading of 239,000. The reading for the month came in above analysts’ expectation of 235,000. Forecast for the next period: 241,000
#10: U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Change (11/22/2017 Wednesday 15:30 GMT)
In the U.S., crude oil stocks rose by 1.854 million barrels during the week that ended on November 10, following the increase of 2.237 million barrels in the prior period. Analysts had expected the stocks to decline by 2.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.894 million barrels, following the 3.312 million barrels drop in the prior period. The figure for the week beat analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 0.919 million barrels.
#11: U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (11/22/2017 Wednesday 19:00 GMT)
The minutes of the Open Market Committee meeting held earlier this month is scheduled for release next Week. There were no new forecasts or press conference. The Fed continues to be positive on a rate hike next month but expects inflation to remain soft. The minutes will provide insights into the discussion between the members. The minutes are not likely to change expectations about the meeting next month.
#12: New Zealand Retail Sales (11/22/2017 Wednesday 21:45 GMT)
In New Zealand, retail sales increased 2.0 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the second quarter after recording an upwardly revised increase of 1.6 percent in the prior quarter. The reading for the second quarter beat analysts’ expectation for a gain of 0.7 percent. Retail sales recorded the sharpest increase since the June quarter of 2016. Forecast for third quarter: 0.4 percent increase
#13: U.K. GDP (11/23/2017 Thursday 9:30 GMT)
Britain’s GDP grew 0.4 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, beating analysts’ expectation of 0.3 percent. This is what was reported in the preliminary estimate. GDP growth was driven by the services, computer programming, motor sales, and retail trade sectors. No change in the growth rate is expected to be reported in the second estimate.
#14: Canada Core Retail Sales (11/23/2017 Thursday 13:30 GMT)
In Canada, retail sales dropped by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis in August after rising 0.4 percent in July. The reading for August missed analysts’ expectation for an increase of 0.5 percent. Core retail sales fell 0.7 percent. Core retail sales forecast for September 2017: 0.9 percent increase
#15: Swiss National Bank Chairman Jordan Speaks (11/23/2017 Thursday 16:30 GMT)
Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Swiss National Bank, is scheduled to deliver a speech on “High current account surplus of Switzerland: consequences for the monetary policy of the SNB?” at the University of Base. Markets often remain volatile during his speeches as traders try to decipher interest rate clues.