Last week the currencies moved back and forth amid calm on trade tariff front, optimism related to Brexit, and upbeat economic data from the U.S. China and the U.S. are meeting once again on an initiative from Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary. However, it is not clear whether he has Trump’s support. The inflation data from the U.S. missed analysts’ expectations but the retail trade figures came in upbeat following its upward revision. Meanwhile, the Fed remained optimistic as regards the economy and consumption. Chief Negotiator for the European Union Michel Barnier pointed out that a Brexit deal looks realistic now and is likely to happen within 6 to 8 weeks. This drove the prices of both the euro and pound higher. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, made relatively upbeat remarks as he decided to leave the CPI forecasts unchanged. This further supported the euro. The central bank of Turkey finally raised the interest rates last week, bringing in some relief for the time being.
In the upcoming week, the focus moves away from America as a slew of data are scheduled to be released from around the world. Here is an outlook on some of the key releases:
#1: Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (09/18/2018 Tuesday 01:30 GMT)
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting 11 times in a year, two weeks after the announcement of the Cash Rate. The Minutes provides a detailed account of the most recent meeting of the Reserve Bank Board and insights into the economic aspects that impacted their decision on setting interest rates.
#2: Euro Zone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks (09/18/2018 Tuesday 07:15 MT)
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank is scheduled to speak in Paris at the French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority event. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.
#3: Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (09/19/2018 Wednesday 03:00 GMT)
The Bank of Japan uses the Monetary Policy Statement as a tool to communicate with traders and investors as regards the monetary policy. The Statement contains in-depth information as regards the decision on the purchase of assets and a commentary on the economic conditions that impacted the members’ decision. More importantly, the Statement provides a projection of the economic conditions and clues on future votes.
#4: Japan BoJ Policy Rate (09/19/2018 Wednesday 03:00 GMT)
In the meeting held in July, the Monetary Policy Committee Members of the Bank of Japan decided to keep the interest rate at the current extremely low level of -0.10 percent for a longer period and opted for the buying of flexible bonds. The policymakers also decided to keep the yield of the 10-year government bond at around 0 percent. Forecast for September 2018: -0.10 percent
#5: Japan BoJ Press Conference (09/19/2018 Wednesday 04:00 GMT)
The Bank of Japan holds a press conference about an hour after the announcement of the interest rate. It is the primary method of the Japanese central bank to communicate with traders and investors as regards the monetary policy. The press conference provides information about the factors that impacted the interest rates in the most recent decision and an overall outlook on the economic situation, inflation, and clues on future monetary policy decisions.
#6: U.K. CPI (09/19/2018 Wednesday 08:30 GMT)
In the U.K., the annual inflation rate increased to 2.5 percent in July from the one year low level of 2.4 percent reported in June. The reading for July was in line with analysts’ expectations. Cost increased at a faster rate for transport, culture and recreation, utilities and housing, and food and non-alcoholic beverages. Forecast for August 2018: 2.4 percent
#7: Euro Zone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks (09/19/2018 Wednesday 13:00 GMT)
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to speak in Berlin at an event that is being hosted by the Jacques Delors Institute. Markets often remain volatile during his speeches. This is because traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.
#8: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (09/19/2018 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)
In the U.S., crude oil stocks declined by 5.296 million barrels during the week that ended on September 7, following the 4.302 million barrels fall in the prior week. Analysts had expected crude oil stocks to fall by just 0.805 million barrels. On the other hand, gasoline stocks rose by 1.25 million barrels against analysts’ expectations for an increase of 1.321 million barrels.
#9: New Zealand GDP (09/19/2018 Wednesday 22:45 GMT)
New Zealand’s GDP grew 0.5 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the March quarter of this year after advancing 0.6 percent in the prior quarter. The growth rate for the first quarter matched analysts’ expectations. Growth was slower in mining, utilities, construction, and services sectors. On the other hand, manufacturing activity rebounded. On a yearly basis, the GDP grew 2.7 percent after expanding 2.9 percent in the prior quarter. The annual growth rate was also in line with analysts’ expectations. Forecast for the second quarter: 0.8 percent expansion is expected
#10: Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (09/20/2018 Thursday 07:30 GMT)
The Swiss National Bank releases the Monetary Policy Assessment on a quarterly basis. The SNB Governing Board uses it as a tool to communicate with investors as regards the monetary policy. It provides the outcome of the Board’s most recent meeting to decide on the interest rates. It also provides a commentary on the economic conditions that impacted the members’ decision. More importantly, the statement provides an economic outlook and clues on future rate decisions.
#11: Switzerland SNB Libor Rate (09/20/2018 Thursday 07:30 GMT)
In the meeting held in June, the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the benchmark three-month Libor rate at the -0.75 percent level as was expected by analysts. Policymakers said that the Swiss franc continued to remain too strong and, therefore, revised the higher inflation forecast for 2018. Forecast for September 2018: -0.75 percent
#12: U.K. Retail Sales (09/20/2018 Thursday 08:30 GMT)
In the U.K., retail sales increased 0.7 percent on a month-on-month basis in July, recovering from the 0.5 percent decline in June. The reading for July beat analysts’ expectations for an increase of 0.2 percent. Non-store retailing registered strong growth as online promotions drove sales. On a year-on-year basis, retail trade increased 3.5 percent. This is the largest increase ever since April last year. Forecast for August 2018: -0.1 percent
#13: Canada CPI (09/21/2018 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, consumer prices increased 0.50 percent in the month of July on a month-on-month basis.
#14: Canada Core Retail Sales (09/21/2018 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, retail trade excluding autos declined 0.10 percent on a month-over-month basis in June, following the upward revision of the previous month’s reading to an increase of 1.7 percent.