Forex Market Outlook for the Week September 24 – 28, 2018

Last week, the United States finally made an announcement on the new tariffs on Chinese goods and markets more or less accepted the same. America went ahead and announced a tariff of 10 percent on Chinese goods worth $200 billion. It was a well-telegraphed move on the part of the United States and the 10 percent tariff came in much lower than the 25 percent that was expected. As a result, the markets remained relatively calm.

The EUR/USD pair made some handsome gains and the commodity currencies gained some ground because of the weakness in the U.S. dollar due to the risk-on move. The Brexit drama continued and the Salzburg Summit concluded in acrimonious arguments as the European Union rejected the Chequers proposal of Britain flat out. The Prime Minister May also responded swiftly in a defiant speech that was televised. This was perhaps aimed at soothing the hard Brexiteers prior to the conference of the Conservative Party. The pound plummeted on the last day of the week after registering gains in the previous week.

FBS The Best Forex Broker

The interest rate decisions from the U.S. and New Zealand stand out in the upcoming last week of the month. However, there are some key releases from elsewhere in the world as well. Here is an outlook on some of the key economic releases:

#1: U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (09/25/2018 Tuesday 14:00 GMT)

forex market outlookIn the U.S., the Consumer Confidence Index from Conference Board indicated an increase in August, following the modest rise in July. Currently, the Index stands at 133.4, up from the 127.9 level in the previous month. While the Present Situation Index rose to 172.2 from 166.1, the Expectations Index increased to 107.6 from 102.4 in the prior month. Forecast for September 2018: 132.2

#2: New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (09/26/2018 Wednesday 01:00 GMT)

In New Zealand, the headline business confidence index reported by ANZ following the Business Outlook Survey fell to -50.3 percent in the month of August from -44.9 percent in the previous month. This is the lowest level ever since April 2008. The figure for August indicated that a net 50.3 percent of the survey respondents expected the general business conditions in New Zealand to deteriorate in the next year.

#3: U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Change (09/26/2018 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)

In the U.S., crude oil stocks dropped 2.057 million barrels during the week that ended on September 14, following on the 5.296 million barrels decline in the prior week. However, the decline was less than analysts’ expectations for a 2.5 million barrels decrease. Gasoline inventories also declined by as much as 1.719 million barrels against analysts’ expectations for a 0.104 million barrels drop.

#4: U.S. FOMC Economic Projections (09/26/2018 Wednesday 18:00 GMT)

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee releases the Economic Projections four times in a year. The report comes with the FOMC’s inflation and economic growth projection over the next two years. More importantly, it provides a breakdown of the interest rate forecasts of individual members of the FOMC.

#5: U.S. FOMC Statement (09/26/2018 Wednesday 18:00 GMT)

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee releases the Interest Rate Statement eight times in a year. The FOMC often incorporates a slight change and traders focus on these changes for clues on the direction of interest rates. The Rate Statement is primarily a tool that the FOMC employs to communicate with traders and investors as regards the monetary policy. It provides the outcome of FOMC members’ vote on interest rate decision and other measures related to policy matters. It also provides a commentary on the economic conditions that impacted the members’ votes. More importantly, the Statement provides an economic outlook.

#6: Federal Funds Rate (09/26/2018 Wednesday 18:00 GMT)

In the meeting in August, the Federal Reserve maintained the target range of the federal funds rate in the range 1.75 percent to 2 percent. This was in line with analysts’ expectations. Policymakers had said that the labor market is continuing to gain strength and the economic activity is rising at a faster rate. This suggests the possibility of an interest rate hike in the meeting in September. Forecast for September 2018: 2:00 percent to 2.25 percent range

#7: U.S. FOMC Press Conference (09/26/2018 Wednesday 18:30 GMT)

The Federal Reserve Chair a press conference 30 minutes after the announcement of the Federal Funds Rate. The press conference lasts for about an hour and has two parts – the reading of a prepared statement and answering press questions. As press questions often call for unscripted answers, heavy market volatility can be expected. Traders care because they look for clues on future monetary policy decisions.

#8: New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate (09/26/2018 Wednesday 21:00 GMT)

In the meeting held in August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave the official cash rate at the same level of record low level of 1.75 percent. Policymakers said that economic growth had moderated and that inflation is expected to increase in the near future because of the lower exchange rate and higher fuel prices. They also said that the interest rates are likely to continue at this level between 2019 and 2020. The interest rate was last changed by the central bank in November 2016.

#9: New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (09/26/2018 Wednesday 21:00 GMT)

Released on a quarterly basis, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand provides details as to how the inflation targets will be achieved and how the monetary policy will be formulated and implemented in the next five-year period. It also provides information as regards the implementation of the monetary policy since the release of the last statement. Traders care because the Statement provides insight into the central bank’s view on inflation and economic conditions.

#10: New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement (09/26/2018 Wednesday 21:00 GMT)

The Rate Statement form the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, released eight times in a year, is a tool of the central bank for communicating with investors as regards the monetary policy. In addition to containing the outcome of members’ decision on setting interest rates, it provides a commentary on the economic conditions that impacted their decision. More importantly, the Statement discusses the country’s economic outlook and provides clues on future decisions.

#11: New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference (09/26/2018 Wednesday 22:00 GMT)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds a press conference one hour after every second interest rate announcement. The press conference lasts for about 30 minutes and has two parts – reading of a prepared statement and questions by the press. As the questions by the press at times leads to unscripted answers, heavy market volatility can be expected during the press conference.

#12: U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (09/27/2018 Thursday 12:30 GMT)

In the U.S., the new orders for long-lasting goods manufactured in the country, excluding transportation, rose by 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in July, following the revised 0.1 percent increase in June. The reading for the month missed analysts’ expectations for a 0.5 percent gain.

#13: U.S. Final GDP (09/27/2018 Thursday 12:30 GMT)

The American economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter of this year, according to the second estimate. This is the fastest growth in four years. In the third and final estimate, it is expected that this growth rate will be confirmed. This will enable Trump to take one more victory lap. Meanwhile, the economic growth is likely to be a little slower in the third quarter.

#14: U.K. Current Account (09/28/2018 Friday 08:30 GMT)

In the U.K., the current account deficit declined for the third consecutive quarter to £17.7 billion in the first quarter of this year after the reading for the prior quarter was revised upward to £19.5 billion. The current account deficit narrowed because of a reduction in total trade and primary income account. Meanwhile, the secondary income account widened. Forecast for the second quarter: a deficit of £19.4 billion is expected

#15: Canada GDP (09/28/2018 Friday 12:30 GMT)

Canada’s GDP remained unchanged in June after gaining 0.5 percent in May. The reading for June missed analysts’ expectations for a 0.1 percent expansion. Goods-buying industries contracted 0.2 percent. However, expansion was seen in the manufacturing sector. Service-producing industries rose by 0.1 percent, following the 0.5 percent growth in May. Forecast for July 2018: 0.1 percent expansion

Copyright © 2026. All Rights Reserved. FXDailyReport.Com
Risk Warning: Trading CFDs is a high risk activity and you may lose more than your initial deposit. You should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose. FXDailyReport.com will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this website including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets.