USDX (USD Index)
An interesting breakout happens in U.S dollar index today, extending the weakness in the index. The breakout happens before December rate-decision which is uncalled and anti-climax on The Fed rate-hike scenario. If The Fed indeed shrugging more rate-hike scenario then we will see U.S dollar index tumble harder and enter a new bearish trend.
News to watch
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 3 – 7 December 2018
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD launched from 1.13600 – 1.1360 support area and grinding higher toward the black trend line. It is expected to continue further higher as the U.S dollar index under pressure. It is possible W pattern has been formed with the neckline around 1.1470 – 1.1500. If EUR/USD could close above the resistance area then we will see the pair riding higher in a new bullish trend.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1360, 1.1300, 1.1200, 1.1120
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1580
GBP/USD
We maintain the neutral outlook in GBP/USD as the pair traded back and forth 1.2800 as expected. The pair shows no indication leaving the level yet and Brexit vote still under progress. It is better to stay away or trade with small positions in GBP/USD for now.
Today Critical level to watch:
Support: 1.2800, 1.2625
Resistance: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3125
USD/JPY
USD/JPY moving down with strong momentum and it looks like will continue bearish for several days. Although it is bearish, there is no break outside of the triangle range. At the current time, traders will observe the bearish momentum and how the pair react near the bottom of the triangle.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 112.50, 112.00
Resistance: 113.00, 113.20, 114.50, 115.00
AUD/USD
AUD/USD has moved above 0.7300 – 0.7330 area and reverse the trend from bearish to bullish. It is now getting closer to the daily SMA 200 and test it. We expect some bearish reaction near the averages and on the upside 0.7450 – 0.7500 area. Traders will observe the pair reaction near the averages before placing positions.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7160
Resistance: 0.7400, 0.7450, 0.7500