USDX (USD Index)

U.S dollar index closed lower but maintain a close above 96.70 in the previous day. It means no breakout lower and no confirmation yet for further bearish correction. At the current time, the index continues to maintain the level near 96.70. Will the index bounce higher or close below 96.70 today?

News to watch

04.30 AM UK CPI y/y, forecast increase of 1.9%

08.30 AM U.S CPI m/m, forecast increase of 0.1%

Core CPI m/m, forecast increase of 0.2%

For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 11-15 February 2019

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

EUR/USD significantly higher after the bounce from trendline yesterday. A close above 1.1300 is bullish for the bull but not a long-term bullish confirmation. The pair still needs to move above the previous day high and the resistance 1.1360 to extend its current bullish reversal. Otherwise, the pair will reverse and continue its bearish movement.

Today critical levels to watch:

Support: 1.1300, 1.1200

Resistance: 1.1360, 1.1400

GBP/USD

GBP/USD slightly higher after previous day bullish close. The upward movement continues today but no strong momentum yet. We think the bearish movement has not completed and GBP/USD might resume its bearish movement either with a test on 1.3000 or without it.

Long positions only available after 1.2800 tested.

Today Critical level to watch:

Support: 1.2800, 1.2625

Resistance: 1.3000, 1.3250, 1.3300

USD/JPY

USD/JPY climbed above 110.50 today after previous day bullish close. Despite the bullish close in the previous day, it could not close above 110.50 which mean no breakout yet. If there is no close above 110.50 today then we expect USD/JPY to trade between 110.00 – 110.50.

Today critical levels to watch:

Support: 110.00, 109.00, 107.40, 105.00

Resistance: 110.50, 111.00

AUD/USD

AUD/USD stage rally today after the bounce from red trendline. It is getting near 0.7160 and might invite more buying. However, we are skeptics in the pair as it broke below 0.7160 and formed lower low on the chart. As long as the pair maintain the level below 0.7160 then short positions favored.

Today critical levels to watch:

Support: 0.7000

Resistance: 0.7160, 0.7200, 0.7300, 0.7330