USDX (USD Index)
A major change in sentiment happened on Friday trading session which set the probability for The Fed rate-hike lower. Non-farm employment data surpassed expectation by almost a double. However, the unemployment rate increase to 3.9% compared to expectation 3.7%.
U.S dollar index broke 96.10 support level and print fresh low. The index might continue lower until it reaches 95.00 before a major change in sentiment happen.
News to watch
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 7-11 January 2019
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
The pair rallied after the bounce from 1.1300 – 1.1360 support area. Traders soon will see another test on 1.1500 resistance level. Under the current situation, there is high change EUR/USD could blow the resistance. Meanwhile, no position suggested yet and the pair might stay between trendline and 1.1500 until next direction settled.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1360, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1580
GBP/USD
GBP/USD turned near 1.2625 support level and rise from the level at the end of last week. The pair currently hovering near 1.2800 which is a major short-term resistance. A breakout above 1.2800 will help GBP/USD set a new bullish trend and rise further toward 1.3000 and daily SMA 200.
Today Critical level to watch:
Support: 1.2625, 1.2500
Resistance: 1.2800
USD/JPY
107.40 is the checkpoint for USD/JPY and help the pair make an upward correction. It is getting near 109.00 resistance which is our projected correction level. Traders could watch for bearish reaction near the level to look for a short position. However, strong bullish pressure above the level could bring the pair higher to test 110.50.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 107.40, 105.00
Resistance: 109.00
AUD/USD
It might be a tempting situation for AUD/USD bear to take a short position as the pair moving near 0.7160. Despite the situation, it is better to let the bull take charge and test the resistance first before placing any positions. Traders will consider Thursday – Friday candlestick which is a reversal and momentum pattern.
In the medium-term, we might see AUD/USD traded near the daily SMA 200.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7160, 0.7200, 0.7300