USDX (USD Index)
Today is the decisive moment for U.S dollar index. The Fed will announce an interest-rate decision in a few hours. Current expectation sees no rate-hike which could be a bearish sign for the index. However, the market will focus on the press conference and hear Jerome Powell speech. If the Fed abandon tightening scenario then the situation could turn worse for U.S dollar index.
Technically, 96.10 is the major level to watch today. The index might move between 95.50 – 96.10 and stay inside it to start sideways situation. On the other breakout of 95.50 – 96.10 area will trigger momentum movement.
News to watch
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 28-1 February 2019
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
The pair trading at the middle of 1.1360 – 1.1500 range while it is waiting for The Fed announcement. There is no clue yet for the next movement. Observing from the technical side, we have a bounce from 1.1300 – 1.1360 area and the bullish leg has not finished yet.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1400, 1.1360, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1580
GBP/USD
GBP/USD correction has reached daily SMA 200 before The Fed interest-rate decision. We are back to stalemate situation though the bull has upper hand. If the bull could maintain the level above daily SMA 200 by the end of the day then traders could expect GBP/USD will continue to test 1.3250.
Today Critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3000, 1.2800, 1.2625
Resistance: 1.3250
USD/JPY
A mini bounce happened again today near the red trendline. Despite the bounce, USD/JPY still trading directionless. It stays in the middle of 109.00 – 110.50. The Fed interest-rate decision might incite momentum movement in USD/JPY today. Otherwise, it is time to continue trading the range 109.00 – 110.50.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 109.00, 107.40, 105.00
Resistance: 110.50, 111.00
AUD/USD
AUD/USD bull initiate buying before The Fed interest-rate decision. The pair moving away from 0.7160 but capped below this week high. There is no confirmation yet that the rally will continue after the release of interest-rate. It is better to continue sideways while watching daily SMA 200 and 0.7160 for the opportunity to enter positions.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7160, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7200, 0.7300