USDX (USD Index)
U.S dollar index opened higher in today trading session but on a limited upside. The index currently sticks below 95.00 and waiting for news trigger. Overall, the expectation continues bullish for U.S dollar index, and we expect it will surpass 95.00 again this week.
News to watch
10.00 AM U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI, expectation reading of 58.2
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 2 – 6 July 2018
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
Bullish close by the end of the previous week brings doubt on EUR/USD bearish continuation. The situation looks apparent when the pair is losing ground after Monday opening. There is no bearish continuation confirmation yet, and the pair still has a chance to move further upward. However, it will depend on the bull persistence to get a close above 1.1710 by the end of the week.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1650, 1.1600, 1.1580, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1710
GBP/USD
GBP/USD bearish movement toward 1.3000 delayed after the pair bounced from the bottom trendline and 1.3050 support. Although it is a valid bounce, the pair might be limited on the upside at 1.3250. We expect the pair will reverse with or without a test of 1.3250 resistance.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3100, 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3330
USD/JPY
The pair proceeds smoothly above the triangle pattern but has trouble maintaining position near 111.00. The bullish sentiment is confirmed. However, a breakout above 111.00 is needed. Otherwise, the pair could reverse and break below the triangle to cancel upside breakout.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 110.50, 110.00, 109.50
Resistance: 111.00
AUD/USD
The bounce from 0.7330 resulted in bullish close at the end of previous week. AUD/USD bull could not rest yet as the pair losing its altitude fast. It is currently traded around 40 pips from previous week low. Traders could place speculative long position assuming fundamental situation will get better and AUD/USD will continue its bounce. A tight stop loss below previous week low is suggested.
However, medium-long term traders could wait until the pair hit 0.7450 before placing any position.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7330, 0.7300
Resistance: 0.7400, 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600