USDX (USD Index)
U.S dollar index returns to its bearish direction and slides lower today. The index sits near the top of the blue box which might become the base for a bounce. However, for now, it is better to stay away from U.S dollar as it might start a new bearish leg lower.
It is possible for the index to slide before ECB interest-rate decision this week which is followed by U.S job data.
News to watch
1.15 PM MPC Member Haldane Speaks
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 5 – 9 Mar 2018
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD bounce accelerated as it leaves 1.2300 level, the pair now has a bullish advantage before ECB interest-rate decision. Will it continue upside and break the 1.2500 resistance after the rate decision?
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2100
Resistance: 1.2500
GBP/USD
The bull is back in control of GBP/USD as the pair move above 1.3835 broken support. Although it is positive, the bull still needs to break above the black trendline before we could assume the trend turn bullish.
Otherwise, a bounce from the trendline followed by the move below 1.3835 will trigger heavy selling.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3850, 1.3800, 1.3600
Resistance: 1.4000
USD/JPY
The bull has not given up yet on USD/JPY after the previous bullish close above 106.10. The reaction produces a bullish harami pattern and needs a confirmation close above the two days candle high. There is no close above the candlestick yet and traders waiting for major news event this week.
Traders could look for a long position with a ¶stop below the bullish harami low.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 106.10, 105.50, 105.00
Resistance: 107.00, 107.40, 109.00
AUD/USD
Despite the bullish jump by AUD/USD today, the pair has not challenged the downtrend line shown on the daily chart yet. The trend expected to continue bearish as long as AUD/USD stay below the downtrend line. The orange area could become the level to look for a short position, but beware of daily SMA 200 below it.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7800, 0.7750, 0.7690
Resistance: 0.7875