USDX (USD Index)
The index reached 97.50 resistance and showed rejection from it today. The direction continues pointing to the upside and no change to the trend yet. Traders will monitor the index reaction near the resistance and decide whether rejection or continuation will happen.
On the long-term, the market seems geared toward The Fed interest-rate on December. Consensus sees a rate-hike of 25 bps followed by three more rate-hike next year. If the Fed turned more hawkish than consensus then we might see U.S dollar index traded near 100.00 next year.
News to watch
08.30 AM U.S Prelim GDP q/q, forecast increase of 3.6%
11.30 AM UK Bank Stress Test Results
11.45 AM UK BOE Gov Carney Speaks
12.00 PM Fed Chair Powell Speaks
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 26 – 30 November 2018
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
The pair pushed downside below 1.1300 support level and closed below it. No continuation downward yet and the bullish attempt made by the bull could not surpass 1.1300. There is a speech by Jerome Powell today, it might produce volatility in the market and create momentum movement for EUR/USD.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1200, 1.1120
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1360, 1.1500, 1.1580
GBP/USD
The closure below 1.2800 might open a downward path for GBP/USD toward 1.2625. However, at the current time, the pair could reverse anytime after the UK reached conclusion on the Brexit divorce deal. We think it is better to stay sideline with minimum exposure in GBP/USD.
Today Critical level to watch:
Support: 1.2625
Resistance: 1.2800, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3125
USD/JPY
USD/JPY on the path upward and almost reached the top of the triangle as predicted. The pair could either breakout above the triangle or rejected from it. Observing the USD/JPY movement for several months, we think the pair has a higher chance for rejection and continue moving inside the triangle. However, incoming The Fed interest-rate decision could create surprise in the market.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 113.20, 113.00, 112.50, 112.00
Resistance: 114.50, 115.00
AUD/USD
AUD/USD survive the selling and closed above its opening level in the previous day. Though it is a bullish close, the pair gave up most of the gain procured. Will the pair continue upward and test 0.7300 – 0.7330 resistance again? Alternatively, will it break the red trendline and head lower?
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7200, 0.7160, 0.7100
Resistance: 0.7300, 0.7330