USDX (USD Index)
U.S dollar index rejected from 94.00 and formed a bearish candlestick. Today the bear followed through and pushed the index down. Fortunately, better than expected ADP Non-farm employment and ISM manufacturing PMI data give support to the index. Currently, the index traded near its opening level and look to erase all losses.
News to watch
08.15 AM U.S ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, expectation 131k. Data released 135k.
10.00 AM U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, expectation reading of 55.5. Data released 59.8.
10.30 AM U.S Crude Oil Inventories consensus decrease of 0.5 million barrels.
1.15 PM ECB President Draghi Speaks
3.15 PM Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
08.30 PM, Australia Retail Sales, expected to increase 0.3% monthly
Australia Trade Balance projected surplus 0.88 billion
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 2 – 6 Oct 2017
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD gained in today trading session but released nearly all of its gain. Is it ready for another push lower below 1.7100? Better data from U.S and dollar index bounce might put EUR/USD under threat. If the index continues the advance this week after Non-farm employment data, it looks like EUR/USD will continue lower toward 1.1500.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1710
Resistance: 1.1820, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000
GBP/USD
The initial bullish reaction is shown on GBP/USD daily chart. The pair moves up in today trading session but continues inside previous day range. There is no conclusion yet on the bounce, and the pair might reverse down to close below 1.3250 at any time.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3250, 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3342, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500
USD/JPY
Massive bullish continuation candlestick is in the making as USD/JPY recovered from today sell-off. The pair is back near its opening level and ready to push higher toward 114.50 in the medium-term.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 112.50, 112.00, 111.60, 111.00, 110.50
Resistance: 113.00, 113.20, 114.00
AUD/USD
AUD/USD top of the range has been tested today and the resistance hold. The pair currently moves lower heading to the bottom of range 0.7800 – 0.7807. If this support level was broken, expect AUD/USD will move lower at least to 0.7690 – 0.7750.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7800, 0.7750, 0.7690
Resistance: 0.7875, 0.7900, 0.7970, 0.8000, 0.8100