The currency pair increased and resumed the yesterday’s bullish candle. It moves up even if the USDX has managed to increase a little today. As I’ve said in the previous days, the dollar index remains under pressure and could drop further anytime.

A USDX’s further drop will force the USD to lose significant ground versus all its rivals. The AUD/USD seems determined to get out from an important down channel, even if the Australian data have failed to impress in the morning.

The next days could be crucial for the USD, personally, I hope that we’ll have a clear direction on the USDX very soon. As you already know, the index moves in range, but this narrow movement can’t last forever.

The Aussie increased, even if the Employment Change was reported at 4.9K, lower versus the 20.3K estimate. The economic indicator increased after the -6.3K in the former reporting period, while the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence was reported at 7 points, matching the 7 points in the previous reporting period.

The Australian Unemployment Rate remains steady at 5.5% in March, matching the 5.5% estimate. It remains to see how the USD will react in the afternoon when the US will release some very important economic data.

The rate has managed to stay above the lower median line (lml) of the dark blue ascending pitchfork and now tries to jump above the second warning line (wl2) of the descending pitchfork.A valid breakout above the wl2 followed by a lower median line (lml) retest will signal a further increase at least till the upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork.

You can see that the rate failed to reach and retest the wl2 in the last two attempts, so now is somehow expected to take this out. Only a USDX’s rally could force the price to turn to the downside again.