AUD/USD rallied today and has managed to reach a very important static resistance. However, it is still premature to talk about a larger upside movement at this moment because the rate is still trapped below some very important upside obstacles. The pair could climb much higher only if the USDX will drop significantly in the upcoming period.

AUD/USD is trapped within a major pattern, so only a valid breakout will signal a potential upside movement. The Aussie was helped by the Australian Trade Balance, which it has increased from 2.34B to 3.02B, beating the 1.71B estimate and by the Import Prices, which have increased by 1.9, more versus the 1.1% estimate. The Commodity Prices increased by 13.1%, more versus 6.2% in the former reading period.

You should be careful in the afternoon as the US is to release important data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI could decrease from 59.8 to 59.0 points, the Unemployment Claims could drop to 213K in the previous week, from 215K, while the Final Manufacturing PMI could remain steady at 55.9 points. The Construction Spending could increase by 0.2%, the ISM Manufacturing Prices could jump from 66.9 to 67.5 points.

AUD/USD has increased aggressive after it has failed to test and retest the median line (ML) of the major descending pitchfork. It has reached the upside 50% Fibonacci line of the descending pitchfork and the lower median line (lml) of the minor ascending pitchfork.

Personally, I believe that only a valid breakout above the inside sliding line (sl) of the descending pitchfork it will really signal a broader upside movement. It has also failed to stabilize below the 150% Fibonacci line, signaling that we may have potential rebound.

The behavior could change as the rate could start to make higher lows, so we may have a buying opportunity soon if the rate will make a valid breakout above the inside sliding line (sl).