The currency pair changed little today and continues to move in range on the short term. It remains to see what will really happen because the USD could lose ground again versus its rivals as the USDX may drop again. EUR/USD is narrowing, but most likely we’ll have a significant move very soon, it remains to see the direction. The perspective remains bullish on the Daily chart as the rate is still located above some very important support levels.

It remains to see if this will be a consolidation or a distribution movement, right now you should stay away and wait for a fresh trading opportunity.

The German Retail Sales dropped by 0.7%, even if the traders have expected to see a 0.7% growth, actually the indicator remains steady for the second month in February. The Spanish Unemployment Change and the Spanish Manufacturing PMI will be released later. Moreover, the French and the German Final Manufacturing PMI are expected to remain steady, while the Italian Manufacturing PMI could drop from 56.8 to 55.6 points.

The Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI will be released as well and could come in line with the 56.6 points in the former reading period.

Price moves in range above the 1.2250 psychological level and needs a spark to be able to start a significant move again. I’ve said in the previous article that the rate should approach and reach the lower median line (lml) of the minor ascending pitchfork after the failure to reach and retest the median line (ml).

EUR/USD failed to stay above the 50% Fibonacci line as well signaling an exhaustion, but only a USDX’s further increase will force the rate to escape from the minor ascending pitchfork’s body. A drop towards the median line (ML) of the major ascending pitchfork is favored after the failure to approach and reach the upper median line (UML), but this scenario will take shape only if the USDX will jump higher.