Forex Trading: USD’s perspectives January 17, 2019

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USD increased a little versus the Euro in the previous days as the USDX has managed to bounce back on the short term. We’ll see what will really happen in the upcoming period because the USDX is almost to reach some very important resistance levels.

If the USDX will decrease again, then the USD will drop significantly versus its rivals. The USD has received support from the US economy earlier. The Unemployment Claims have decreased from 216K jobs to 213K jobs in the previous week, even if the specialists have expected to see an increase to 219K.

Moreover, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index increased more than expected, from 9.4 to 17.0 points, beating the 9.7 estimate.

You can see that the USDX has reached the outside sliding line (SL1) of the descending pitchfork, which it represents a very important upside obstacle. It could reach the upper median line (uml) of the minor descending pitchfork as well.

The current rebound is natural after the false breakdown below the upside 50% Fibonacci line of the descending pitchfork, below the sliding line (sl) of the minor ascending pitchfork and below the inside sliding parallel line (SL) of the major descending pitchfork.

The perspective remains bearish on the short term despite the current rebound as long as the rate stays below the outside sliding line (sl) of the minor descending pitchfork. Only a valid breakout above it and above the outside sliding line (SL) of the major descending pitchfork will signal a further increase.

Personally, I believe that we may have another important upside movement only if the rate will decrease a little and if it will make another false breakdown below the sliding line (sl) of the ascending pitchfork, or if it will fail to reach this line.

I want to remind you that a valid breakdown below the sliding line (sl) of the ascending pitchfork will signal a further drop and the USD’s crash.

EUR/USD decreased after the failure to reach the downside 50% Fibonacci line of the minor ascending pitchfork and the downside 50% Fibonacci line of the descending pitchfork. It has found temporary support on the outside sliding line (sl) of the ascending pitchfork.

It has failed to stay above the 50% Fibonacci level, but the perspective remains bullish on the short term as long as the rate is located above the 150% Fibonacci line of the minor ascending pitchfork.

We can sell it only after a valid breakdown below the 150% line and below the 1.1301 static support.

 

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